The British electorate wants change

January wasn't a good month for the Conservative party. While Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt's failed coup against Gordon Brown may have had David Cameron and co feeling happy as the New Year began, things all seemed to go downhill from there.

First was Cameron's uming and erring over the Tories proposals for an allowance for married couples. At first Cameron seemed to downgrade what had been a sure commitment to merely an aspiration, saying that it was something he wished he could do but he could not commit to. Then, almost as quickly as this had been said, he issued a statement to say that it was a firm policy. Brown laid into Cameron at the subsequent Prime Minister's Questions (PMQ) stating that Cameron, "couldn't say I do, or I don't" over his marriage proposals. Details are still sketchy over what the final tax break will be, but Cameron has now confirmed he is committed to this policy.

Then there was the 'giant face' poster launch, in which a touched up image of Cameron stared out of the poster. The line chosen for the poster campaign read, "I'll cut the deficit, not the NHS:" a confused message trying to sound tough and soft on spending at the same time. The image itself was much lampooned across the internet. On the website mydavidcameron.com people could make their own version of the poster.

Last and most recent was Cameron's rowing back from a serious commitment to spending cuts, something he'd previously gone to great lengths to put at the heart of the Conservative policy. When questioned at Davos, Cameron reversed his previous line of having hefty and immediate cuts, instead opting for cuts that were "certainly not swingeing".

The above led to the Tories poll lead fall as low as 7 points and on average be about 8 or 9. For those who don't follow the polls this may still seem like a substantial lead on Labour, and it is. However, at the end of last year the Tories consistently polled a double figure lead and had polls putting them as high as a 17-point lead according a Mori poll on 13 December 2009. Labour has managed to narrow the gap fairly quickly.

Ironically, if Labour where to told a 7 point lead they would get a majority in the region of 80 seats, highlighting the mountain the Tories have to overcome in order to win. Under the current polls Labour are still on track to lose power, but the Tories would still be a few seats shy of an overall majority.

The hung Parliament which would result from this would be a terrible prospect in an election so vital to the future of the country. The hard decisions which need to be made on spending and reducing the deficit would be thrown aside in order to form a coalition government. This would see the cost of the UK's debt rise as the markets lost faith in the UK government and as a result demanded higher interest rates on the guilt's sold to finance the deficit.

Cameron and the Tories need to be much clearer and decisive if they are to win the election with a workable majority. I think it's fair to say after 13 years, the expenses scandal and Gordon Brown presiding over the UK economy imploding after claiming an end to boom and bust, people are pretty sick of Labour. What they certainly don't want are Labour policies with Cameron's faced slapped on them; they want change. If Cameron is serious about winning the election decisively, he needs to stick to the firm blue water he put between himself and Brown. People are still unsure about what Cameron stands for, so going back on the few hard cast Tory policies is not going to win him any votes. It's going to be seen as being weak and flip-flopping.

Cameron needs to stand his ground on his marriage tax proposals and, more importantly, to cut spending. We cannot afford not to cut the deficit. Labour has led us down the path of national bankruptcy and Cameron needs to make this clearer and spell out how he's going to fix it. The electorate expects it and the economy demands it.

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