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The end of the year is nigh and so the time has come to prepare for yet another Oscar season which with its normal mix of glitz, glamour and politics, come the all important nominations and awards. However, with the academy traditionally following patterns of career awards and getting it wrong, they often become quite predictable even at this early stage when much is yet to be decided. Here are a few suggestions on what we can expect to see nominated and what should win:
At this point, the Best Picture Oscar race actually seems quite open with many films vying for a nomination and eventual victory. Sofia Coppola’s (yet to be released) new film Somewhere has successfully polarised many of its critics, but will probably get nominated having already won awards in Venice. It successfully defeated Darren Aronofsky’s Black Swan which arguably has a better chance of winning here, it is apparently superb, yet hardly traditional Oscar fare as the Academy generally prefer more uplifting and less morally ambiguous or confusing tales. At this stage, I would say the favourites are Tom Hooper’s Kings Speech (which follows a more traditional Oscar pattern) and David Fincher’s superb The Social Network, which has achieved almost universal acclaim, or perhaps emotional drama Rabbit Hole although this looks more like a film for acting awards. It’s also worth noting that Toy Story 3 will almost certainly be nominated but won’t win and probably so will Christopher Nolan’s exquisite Inception as the Academy try and appeal to a broader audience.
This one is hard to gauge, however, the nominations will probably go to the better Best Picture nominations, so expect Fincher, Aronofsky and Hooper. The other two nominations are highly debatable although Sofia Coppola could well be in with the best shot as the Academy won’t want an entirely male list of nominees.
Probably the easiest to predict with Colin Firth becoming a clear favourite with for his role in the The King’s Speech, as well as his excellent work in A Single Man last year undoubtedly helping. As for competition he will have to almost certainly have to defeat Javier Bardem from the superb French film Biutiful, as well as the probable return of last year’s winner Jeff Bridges, who is starring in the Coen brothers' True Grit remake.
Perhaps the toughest category this time around thanks to a year full of superb female performances. However, Natalie Portman seems to be the current frontrunner for her turn in Black Swan. Yet there is strong competition from Nicole Kidman who’s starring as a bereaved mother in far more traditional Oscar fare in Rabbit Hole. Also, there’s Annette Benning in the surprisingly popular and overrated The Kids are All Right who has a good chance unless she decides to choose a supporting nomination instead to and make her chances of victory almost certain. Added to that, there’s Jennifer Lawrence, whose performance in Winter’s Bone is by far the finest that I’ve seen this year, and thoroughly deserves a nomination but perhaps the Academy won’t give her one as the film is too independent.
By far the easiest category to predict as Toy Story 3 will almost certainly win, with an equal certainty of How To Train Your Dragon being nominated. The third and final nomination is very much up for grabs, but I’d expect it to go to something more mature and non-American like Chico and Rita or The Illusionist as the Academy always like to select a more obscure film that never wins.
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