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Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Shia clerics have dominated the power structure of the Iranian State. Based on a hatred of Western imperialism and a lust for national identity, the revolution took Islam as its main driving force, being perceived as pure, uncorrupted by the West, blessed by God and embodying a moral system which was acceptable to the nation.
The Revolution created a new state with the country's Ayatollahs, their religious leaders, enthroned as members of the Guardian Council, and entrusted with guiding the country by the wisdom of the Quran. This council is made up of self-appointed Ayatollahs who vote together to elect the Supreme Leader – the current incumbent being Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – who serves for life, has the power to block policy, dismiss the President and has sole control over the Revolutionary Guard, the elite members of the Iranian army. Untouchable and possessing a personal army, the Ayatollahs are in control of the country.
These clerics have dominated the power structure of Iran for the last 30 years, enforcing strict Islamic Law which sanctifies the execution of homosexuals, imprisoning dissidents, censoring the media and funding aggressive anti-Western policies at home and abroad. Their justification for this is to protect Iran from Western imperialism and the decadence that it would bring to Iran, the same reasons which were used to justify the revolution.
However, the revolution is 30 years past and the religious fervour that once flowed through Iran has now abated. Years of poor economic performance, sanctions, aggressive control of free speech, holocaust denials and cries by Ahmadinejad for Israel to be wiped off the face of the earth has left many Iranians disillusioned with the establishment, Ahmadinejad, and the Guardian Council. This election has shown just how disaffected the Iranian people are and how out of touch the Guardian Council is with its own subjects.
The election has definitely rattled the establishment. Khamenei has vowed to conduct a recount and protestors have been killed by the security forces. Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guard has ordered the removal of any incentives to protest from websites after it became apparent many of the protests were being organised via Twitter, and support rallies for Ahmadinejad have been organised in an attempt to counter the protests.
In this chaos only one man does not seem worried by the unrest - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He has been calmly going about his presidential duties as if everything was normal, and therein, it would appear, lies the answer to what has happened in the election. If Ahmadinejad thought he was in serious danger of losing his office would he be visiting the Russian President for diplomatic talks? Is it possible that he received reassurance from somewhere and, if so, where else could this have come from but the Guardian Council? Any recount of the vote will be conducted by the Guardian Council and will occur in private, so only the final outcome will be produced and published by the Council. Their mobilisation of the state media, the security forces and the Revolutionary Guard already shows that they are unwilling to reverse Ahmadinejad’s victory so any recount is unlikely to grant victory to Mousavi.
The Guardian Council gained its dominant position thanks to the Islamic Revolution and sustains its dominance by constantly re-iterating the rhetoric used during the Revolution. This week has shown how few still believe that rhetoric. The Council can either capitulate to the protestors, thereby allowing the slow process of reform to start, leading to their loss of power, or they can violently put down the protests, alienate Iran's population and sow the seeds for violent revolution in years to come. With a choice reminiscent of that faced by the Soviets in East Germany in 1989, we can only hope they choose the peaceful option, but considering Khamenei’s warning on Friday, it seems unlikely.
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