Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
Betting on the FA cup is riskier than betting on the Premier League. Runs of form in the league will have no affect on the result in a cup match, and lower league clubs often exceed everyone's expectations. At 3 o’ clock Derby face Preston at Pride Park and I think they have brought in enough quality players to win this tie.
Derby are so far adrift in the Premiership that it must be hard to motivate themselves each week. A different competition may improve the players’ mentality and bring them the win here.
Preston are in trouble in their own division, but I think Derby will be desperate to give their supporters something to smile about. A Derby win is a very rare thing in the Premiership, but in the FA cup against a Championship struggler I expect them to be victorious.
I do not think Liverpool will face as straightforward a task as it appears on paper this Saturday. Havant & Waterlooville will be the most fired up team in the round. I fully expect Liverpool to beat them, yet the part-timers could put in a heroic forty-five minutes to keep Liverpool at bay. I think Liverpool could break them down in this time; but the odds of 8.8 on Betfair for a draw at half-time and Liverpool to go on to win is too good to ignore.
The speculation surrounding Liverpool’s future during these past two weeks cannot have helped the Reds and the players may not feel settled at the moment. Liverpool will no doubt rest a few of their bigger players and these changes may just mean that the team takes a while to gel.
The bookies think the win for Havant & Waterlooville is as likely as West Brom lifting the trophy. Yet this does not mean they will not be able to scrape through the first half with some desperate defending.
The 2:40 at Cheltenham is one which I can see going to the favourite for the first time in nine years. Our Vic is a horse of superior ability to his rivals on Saturday and has a 100% record on soft ground from 5 runs. In the King George on Boxing Day he finished ahead of Racing Demon and Exotic Dancer (who won this race last year).
Our Vic was second last year, the only other horse that featured that day was the second favourite Neptune Collonges, who fell on that occasion. He was 7 lengths behind Our Vic in October 2006 and it is hard to see him overturning that as he is 12lbs worse off now. Neptune Collonges is also coming back from a 276 day rest and may need a run before he is back to his best.
Outside of the front two in the market any of the other horses have a genuine chance of finishing in the remaining place. In November Faasel finished 18 lengths ahead of the recently successful Lough Derg; yet his 7lbs rise for that performance seems to have gotten the better of him.
Simon may feature in this race as he only just lost out to Over the Creek last month. His poor first run of the season may be explained by the fact that he has come 5th, 5th and 4th in his first run out in the last 3 seasons. Madison du Berlais hasn’t really got to grips with this distance yet and appears unlikely to overturn the 13 lengths he has to make up on State of Play.
Knowhere is a very decent price, and worth an each way bet. He was thereabouts in a few races earlier this season and finished 5th in the Hennessy. I think he will improve on the race he pulled up in last month. He has had a longer break to recuperate than on that day, he gives up on blinkers and he will appreciate the longer trip. Expect a bold showing from the ten year old on Saturday.
Doncaster Selections
For football betting, this is the worst time of the year. With so many odds on shots being overturned, the FA cup is shown up again as an overly volatile betting medium. The bookies have now got the teams worth following in the leagues under their control, teams we have been winning from, like Everton, Villa, Blackburn and Portsmouth are now far too short. It's time to put the football tips aside for a few weeks, till we can start to spot trends and form that the bookies have not yet covered. For the meantime, there is some cracking racing this weekend.
York's Horse Racing Society is taking a trip to a fine day's racing at Doncaster, while Cheltenham fever is among us as they hold a day of festival trials. Doncaster is a large, flat, and fair track that throws up true results, and so offers us the best chance to make some money. In a Doncaster special, I will be taking you through the entire card.
In the first, Khyber Kim looks the obvious class act, and with a Champion Hurdle entry looks set for bigger things. But this game is all about value, and at 4/11 he certainly isn't. Tazbar is his only serious rival, having demolished his rivals last time by 38 lengths. Take the 9/2 in this two horse race, and if Khyber Kim wins on the bridle, accept that we've bean beaten by something very special.
The 12.50 is a far trickier equation however, and there is no genuine value in the front runners. Vitray seems to struggle to get his head in front, while King Louis has still to prove he can act on softer than fast. Nevertika looks fit and fresh, and conditions look likely to suit. However he is currently trading around 4.3 on betfair, which is far too prohibative. Instead, have a nibble on Endless Power, who should be back to his best over this distance, at a much juicier price, 14/1.
The 1.20 is all about Estate, if he performs, he wins. Otherwise it's a raffle, Mous of Men and Young Albert appeal, but there are better opportunities this day. No Bet
Chomba Womba is the best horse we'll see at Doncaster today, but on conditions that might be a bit sticky, and over a distance short of her optimum, she can be opposed at odds on here. Theatre Girl will be the more popular choice to oppose her with, but I think Trompette has the edge on that mare. After lugging top weight so close last time out, a run sure to have opened her pipes ready for a much bigger showing, she looks the value to oppose the favourite here. With three to be placed on betfair, back her each way.
Lampion Du Bost looks nice value in the 2.30, but he not yet proved that these conditions will really suit him. No Bet
The Sky Bet Chase (3.00) is the race of the day, but with 22 confirmed runners it is no walk in the park. Luckily for you, picking these apart is my job! Looking through the results from the last ten years we can pull together some trends to help us find a value selection. Five of the last ten winners carried less than 10st 5lbs, four of the last ten started at prices between 16/1 and 22/1, while seven out of the last ten raced last time at either Cheltenham, Chepstow or Wetherby. With the ground drying, Henry's Pride might be worth a nibble. Unfortunately the gelding is out of the handicap by 6lbs, but he is such a game performer, and definitely worth supporting at 33/1.
In the 3.30 Mount Oscar is opposable, especially with a potential class act in Hennessy opposing. One Gulp looks a real danger, but Hennessy been this distance, in these conditions, unlike most of the others.
My advice in the last? Don't touch with a barge pole. If you're behind, don't chase, if you're ahead make sure you take those winnings straight to the bar! If things are really that bad, catch the earlier train home. There's a 1/21 chance of us picking out a winner, and with the market the only real guide there's no way I'm handing over my hard earned.
Happy punting!
A stunning week for Sneer, a 25/1 winner, and correctly predicting that Havant would make it to half time drawing left him with a stunning weekly profit of over 20pts!! Well done Adam!
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