Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
Haydock’s 1.05 looks a wide-open affair, and at least one reputation will be muddied today. Wichita Lineman is fancied to be a serious rival to Inglis Drever in next month’s World Hurdle, but faces a tough task in overcoming his rivals here. Our task as punters is not made any easier, as although Inglis Drever links most of the runners together, for most it is a case of who got beaten by how far.
Lough Derg is a real stayer, but worryingly seems to keep his best efforts at Ascot. He is so tough, and hates being headed – ideal characteristics from the punter’s viewpoint, but some of his form this year might be flattering, and he can be opposed today.
Back in November, Special Envoy looked a cracking prospect when he had a race won over this course and these conditions. However, he fell at the last, so the form of the run is tremendously difficult to pin down. He is best watched today, as this wasn’t his first final fence blunder.
Which all means it might pay to keep faith with Chief Dan George on this day. The selection had Lough Derg well behind last time, and he might not have to improve much on that form to take this. Although the field is small, Special Envoy or Wichita Lineman might just expend too much energy chasing Lough Derg early on, leaving the race wide open for the out and out stayers to take advantage.
In the following race, you may recognise Tazbar – a winning selection from the Doncaster special in week 4. However, at a best price 6/5 he looks very skinny today, and is confidently opposed with Souffleur, who on official ratings has a whopping 13lbs in hand on Tazbar. He is wonderfully progressive, learning from each race, and after a month’s holiday he should be back to winning form.
Tazbar’s trainer is adamant he will be a better horse over 24 furlongs, but taking his word for it is a big risk. At the prices, it looks sensible to oppose him on what is a step into the unknown. Making up a stone, over three miles, is a hell of a lot to ask a young chaser.
The fifth round of the FA cup is all about one game. Manchester United host Arsenal in a salivating encounter. And what a price we have on offer. What a price. As a punter and a tipster, one waits for moments like these, where events conspire to push the bookies into making a wrong decision. Now I hope you havn't peeked at the top of the column and seen what I'm going to suggest already, because I would confidently wager that you still havn't seen it. Arsenal, or Man U? A puzzle of rubrix cube complexity. Let me help you out.
The last point brings up a crucial aspect to this fixture, team news. Both have more important midweek encounters, and no player will feature if not 100%. So I'd suggest waiting for team news before pilling in, but once you see that Vidic, Ronaldo and Rooney are starting, take the 6/5 for all you have. Cash in the grandmother, and don't look back.
Given fixture congestion, a draw suits neither side, and both teams will be throwing everything at this from the start. So it seems madness that there is 11/10 available for over 2.5 goals. Have a nibble.
Finally, England look to be settling into the batting conditions down in New Zealand, and should start to show the swagger they had in the Twenty20 warm ups. Back them to win the series at 5/2 on Betfair.
In the FA Cup I expect Sheffield United's good cup run to come to an end. They defeated Manchester City and Bolton in the last two rounds, but both had been in inconsistent form and City may have fared better were it not for an assist by a balloon. They are host to Middlesbrough on Sunday who are 2.38 to win in 90 minutes and progress to the quarter-finals. Both teams are just seven points above their respective drop zones yet Middlesbrough are in much better form at the moment and find themselves just three points behind Tottenham in the Premiership. In their last seven games 'Boro are unbeaten and have conceded just four goals. Sheffield United have drawn their last four games and been unable to score in 180 minutes. On top of this, Sheffield United have just lost their manager, Bryan Robson, which will not help their players focus for the match.
Middlesbrough's recent signing, Afonso Alves, did not have enough time to impress last week but his scoring record in Holland (34 goals in the Eredivisie last year) speaks for itself. Being away today shouldn't really hinder them as their home crowds are so meagre. They have become accustomed to this and their away form is almost as good as their home. So, do not steer clear of Middlesbrough because they aren't at the Riverside. Instead, back them to win the game against the stuttering Blades.
The Champions League returns this week for the knockout rounds and the long break has allowed some to forget what happened in the group stages. Whilst Liverpool struggled to get through their group (and were allegedly helped by some match-fixing), Inter Milan cruised through theirs, losing just one. Liverpool are struggling to qualify for the Champions League via the Premiership at the moment and are 19 points behind top spot. On the other hand, Inter Milan are eight points clear at the top of Serie A, are undefeated and have conceded just 13 goals.
There is a belief that Liverpool can perform well in the Champions League despite bad performances in the Premiership. But Inter are in superb form this season and it is hard to see them not beating Liverpool on Tuesday. The form shows us that Liverpool have won one in seven and Inter Milan have won five out of six. These two teams are going in different directions and yet inexplicably Inter Milan are 3.25 to beat Liverpool at Anfield.
In the 1:15 at Ascot I think it is worth opposing the favourite, Air Force One. Although he won his last two easily the ability of the opposition was questionable. He made mistakes at Newbury in November too and I think 6/4 is too short for him. Joe Lively appeals far more having won five of his last six. He comfortably beat Ice Tea by 17 lengths in December and that looks unlikely to be reversed as he is a mere 6 lbs worse off today. On Boxing Day he beat Silverburn by seven lengths which looks all the better given Silverburn's recent win at Sandown. Over The Creek had a couple of good wins lately but was 16 lengths away in the Welsh National and most worryingly looked one-paced in that race, perhaps the drop back in trip could help him though. I doubt Ice Tea will feature as he hasn't improved his jumping since losing to Joe Lively and I fancy the nine year old to win this one.
At 2:25 we are treated to the return of Kauto Star. It looks a foregone conclusion whenever he runs, which is why a test against Denman in the Gold Cup in March will be so fascinating. It seems pointless to oppose Kauto Star, who has a Racing Post Rating of 191. 14 of 15 papers are tipping Kauto Star in this race but at 4/11 it also seems pointless to back him. To have any sort of valuable bet in this race we must look to the places. Howle Hill and Vodka Bleu offer a similar bet in this race. Both have had a few wins in the past and both were recently sharpened up by the introduction of blinkers. Vodka Bleu won twice since their introduction (and then ran a very poor hurdle race off of a very generous mark). Howle Hill won at Doncaster two weeks ago with blinkers despite a couple of mistakes. This step up in trip might just steady him and allow him to cut the errors out.
Alternatively we can lay other horses and I think it is wise to lay Monet's Garden on this occasion. Monet's Garden has every right to be in the front three here. However, the race tactics have to be considered. If any horse attempts to stay with Kauto Star it will be Monet's Garden, especially having beaten the horse back in October. But the pace of Kauto Star will be too much for the grey and this could leave him with little energy left for the run-in, allowing others to come from further back to take the places.
Nice week for Taylor after Man U's thrashing last night, I hope you were on!
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