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Betting week 8; Carling cup finalists likely to reverse form

George Taylor
Saturday, 1st March 2008
Last week's showpiece, the Carling cup, was won in extra time by Spurs. But this week attention is returned to the Premiership stomping ground, where fortunes between the two sides are poles apart. Elsewhere, there is value at Newbury, and all eyes are on Doncaster - which hosts a prominent National trial. Happy Punting!

Taylor's Tips

  • 3pts Mr Pointment (3.30 Doncaster at 5/2 with Bet Fred) NAP
  • 3pts Chelsea (1.94 - Betfair)
  • 2pts Birmingham (4.1 - Betfair)
  • 0.5pts McFadden to score first (Ladbrokes 7/1)

Doncaster plays host to an intriguing little race today, as several Grand National hopefuls come together. Last year's National favourite Joe's Edge lines up for the first time since that flop, against this year's leading fancies - Mr Pointment and Cloudy Lane.

The latter has all the credentials to follow in the footsteps of 2006 winner Amberleigh House - trained by Donald McCain, son of Ginger. Unfortunately, today may not be his day. McCain has been quick and forceful to play down his chances today, and with the National looming no chances will be taken.

Mr Pointment is in a similar situation, but is one year older, and more experienced with the ground, distance, and course. He comes into this race with an impressively progressive profile, and on good ground even the 9lb hike up the weights looks like stopping him.

According to the market, Ungaro represents the biggest danger to the pair. Falling at the second last time out he is showing signs that he is reaching his very best. However, he seemed to show his best off a strong pace in a large field the time before that. But today the principles have no interest in going a fierce gallop, and it could turn into a bit of a crawl.

Back Mr Pointment with Bet Fred, they're offering a standout 5/2 that is crying out to be taken. Invest in Ruby to do us a job.

This weekend's football looks a very dangerous affair. Arsenal are no shoe-ins, facing an organised Villa side, and with all the fallout from the Eduardo injury, plus the looming return leg of the champions league, 1.64 looks very unappealing. The bookies might have caught up with Newcastle, they may well go on to get beaten again, but there's no longer massive value.

Backing Man U at 1.32 away from home is no way to earn a living, while Sunderland have an important fixture at Pride Park. Man City are on the slide, it looks like all their foreign stars aren't too fond of our winters, but can we have much confidence in Wigan?

The value this weekend lies in our Carling cup finalists, Chelsea and Spurs. Chelsea have all their stars back, and will be too good for West Ham. The defeat should instill a renewed vigour in their title chase, starting with an away win at Upton Park.

Spurs are away too, facing Birmingham. The Blues gave Arsenal a real game last week, especially when you consider they were playing with ten men for 87 minutes. McFadden is a great signing for them, and they could be set for a few positive results. Spurs' back line looks weak, Carling Cup hero Woodgate is absent, and Ledley King seems to pick what games he would like to play in these days. Take a chance on Spurs falling complacent - their league form is erratic at best - by backing Birmingham to grab a crucial home win.

Sneer's Selections

  • 2 pts draw Man City vs. Wigan (3.45 on Betfair)
  • 3 pts Blackburn to win (2.86 on Betfair)
  • 1 pt Nevertika to win (Newbury 3.15 at 7.2 on Betfair) - NAP

Sneer
Sneer has taken up the arduous task of opposing Newcastle, a system that shows no sign of slowing profits.

This week I predict the fortunes of two clubs aiming for a place in Europe next year. I am not sure that Manchester City will complete the apparently simple task on Saturday of beating Wigan at Eastlands.

I think the game will end in a draw. This season has been a game of two halves as far as the Citizens home form is concerned. They won their first nine games at home and yet haven’t managed a win since. The last time that they did pick up three points from the City of Manchester Stadium was on the 15th of December. Since then, they have drawn three and lost two. Their away win against their rivals was a one off. Manchester City’s true form (excluding this derby game) is very poor.

This weekend they will miss Petrov (through suspension) and Micah Richards (through injury). City will really struggle without Petrov who has provided ten assists and four goals from the wing. This reliance on a few key players will see their push for fourth come to grief and I expect a Uefa Cup spot would be the best they could hope for. Wigan have been poor away, losing ten of their fourteen Premier League games outside of Wigan. In the last few weeks they have picked up a few good wins however, which has seen them rise to 14th. I think their away form is too poor to beat Manchester City but they will certainly not rollover and I think the spoils will be shared.

I am very confused about the odds on Blackburn to beat Newcastle today. The last few results for Blackburn have not been great but the confidence of the two sides will be polar opposites today. Blackburn come into this one on the back of a 4-1 thrashing of Bolton and Newcastle have just lost 5-1, and Owen has admitted that morale is low. The Magpies were facing Manchester United, but the manner of the defeat was dreadful. There was surprisingly little passion on display and more worryingly, much of the defending made Derby’s back four look like it belonged in Serie A.

I thought it was ridiculous that some said Keegan would not be able to cope with the changes in the game since his absence. However, Newcastle have scored three and conceded sixteen in their last six games. Blackburn have some winnable games coming up against Wigan, Fulham and Reading. If they start this spell with three points from St. James’ Park they must be aware that they could easily take one of the Uefa Cup spots.

The good news is the Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us. The bad news is there is little quality racing until then. The 3:15 at Newbury looks one of the more interesting races and we can only hope for a race as exciting as in 2006 when it was a dead heat. Ollie Magern is the top weight here and gives all his rivals 7lbs. His last two wins have come in the first run of the season, and without a long lay-off he doesn’t seem the same horse. He has taken on Kauto Star and Denman this season and got beaten by almost 90 lengths each time. When facing Denman he tried to make a race of it and this is what took it out of him. Much closer that day was Regal Heights, who was just 20 lengths behind the winner and would have been 20lbs better off in a handicap so must be considered if we consider him anywhere close to Denman’s ability.

Maljimar is the favourite today after beating Burntoakboy by 11 lengths in January. He has been risen 14lbs though, which may be enough to oppose him. This means he is now 16lbs worse off than Kalca Mome having being beaten into third by a neck by him in December. Yet, Kalca Mome can not be expected to win here as his more recent form has been very poor and the handicapper has not seen fit to lower his rating. Nevertika is the most progressive horse among these having won three on the bounce by substantial margins. The question is whether he can match strides with this company and I believe he can. Nacarat had an enormous rise before facing Maljimar in January and was eventually pulled up. I don't think Nevertika will suffer the same fate though. He has shown better form than Nacarat prior to his rise and has more chance of finishing ahead of Maljimar today. Milan Deux Mille hasn’t looked the same horse since a big rise in the weights this time last year took the wind out of him.

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#1 George Taylor
Sun, 2nd Mar 2008 12:59am

What a belter, Blackburn, Birmingham and Chelsea all running out winners, I hope you were all on!

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