Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
Betfair prices are constantly changing and those quoted were all available at time of writing.
GTT: This amateur rider's event is best left alone. But where's the fun in that? We certainly don't want to be taking any short prices here, if only because four of the last three winners started longer than 33/1.
Here's Johnny was once a useful prospect, and at 19.5 looks well worth backing to put his last outing behind him. If you're perming a placepot, Back on Line looks to have solid place claims.
GTT: Joe Lively is an enigma. An Enigma who poses a tricky question. Should a horse be treated so harshly for one flat run? Trained by Tizzard, he was favourite for this on the morning of February the 16th, but by lunchtime he was available at 16s. The excuses were weak, and there is a sense of disappointment in the camp. However, I suggest that we shouldn’t abandon him altogether. If he is at his best, then he should take this. The ‘if’, is if he has come on for his last run. If he has then 16/1 could look one of the silliest prices this week, if not, then the joke’s on us.
More eye catching though is the 9 year old Starzaan. A late convert to chasing, he has notched two from two in impressive style. He has gone on this distance and ground over hurdles, and is expected to show that form here. However, his last two wins were in small fields and this is sure to be far more competitive. If he’s there at the finish he could easily nick this one, but there’s a reasonable chance he simply won’t be able to get involved. This is why I recommend backing him win only, this takes a bit of balls in an event like this, but remember fortune favours the brave. This is Cheltenham, bet like a man!
Tidal Bay would be a very interesting runner if he was to turn up, which is unlikely given yesterday’s stunning victory. If you’re looking at the longer prices, you could do a lot worse than follow Bagan. His form is not completely out of reach of the market leaders and he loves good to soft over a stiff three miles.
SNEER: Mr Strachan has been in the front three in all five of his races this year, yet there is a concern that he has been unexposed to larger fields. He was just 4 lengths behind Tidal Bay in one of those though, and after Tuesday that form is extremely hard to ignore, as it means he is a better horse than Kruguyrova. Mr Strachan proved that by beating the mare at Wetherby in December. That consistent form leads us to think he would have come 2nd in the Arkle, which is very impressive form. If the trip suits him I expect him to go very close. Gold Medallist is another that was just beaten by Tidal Bay this season and was said not to be fully fit that day. I don't believe three miles suits Gold Medallist though, as he failed to win at Southwell where he went off a very short favourite.
It is easy to see why Dear Villez is the favourite as he hasn't been risen after a comfortable win in December at Newbury. However, I don't wish to take short prices in such an unpredictable race. Arturio is another with a great chance here and I think his odds amy have been helped by a poor run over hurdles. A run back over fences will suit him better but a 15lbs rise is offputting. Ambobo has demonstrated that he has the ability to battle, which could serve him well in a race where a few could go close.
SNEER: The front four in the market will surely provide the winner in this one. Voy Por Ustedes has every chance of defeating Master Minded this time around, since his 5 length loss can be made up by the 6lbs he now gains. As well as that, he is a Cheltenham horse and Master Minded has never run at this testing track. It looks as though Voy Por Ustedes will have the beating of Master Minded.
However, I believe that the two other leaders in the market will be too good for Alan King’s horse. Voy Por Ustedes was said not to have liked the ground at Newbury (which was good to soft) and with more rain expected prior to Wednesday’s races this will be a disadvantage. Alan King could find no excuses for his horse’s loss to Twist Magic in the Tingle Creek and that is very worrying. King did suggest that Voy Por Ustedes is better at Cheltenham, yet Ruby Walsh seemed sure that Twist Magic would have won last year’s Arkle were it not for the infamous penultimate fence. Fortunately for Walsh, that fence has been altered this year and should not be his downfall this time around.
...there is one obstacle that Twist Magic will not be able to overcome and that is the front-running Tamarinbleu
Despite ground to suit and an altered fence, there is one obstacle that Twist Magic will not be able to overcome and that is the front-running Tamarinbleu. Since the introduction of blinkers Tamarinbleu has been a different horse, winning three of his four races. Only one of those was over this trip, yet that was his most emphatic. Nicholls believed the tacky ground allowed the ‘three-miler’ to beat his horse at Ascot, if that is true then similar conditions will give Tamarinbleu the opportunity to repeat the feat.
GTT:Our Vic has some classy form, including a close second in this event last year. Despite being set some tricky tasks this season he has shown himself to be fit an well when beating Gold Cup hopeful Exotic Dancer back in December. His habit of running in snatches might be nullified in this quicker shorter event, but equally it could be exposed in more competitive circumstances.
Fifth in this event last year was Racing Demon, who is available at 14.5 on Betfair. With no excuses last year, we would need to see reason to expect improvement to fancy him here. Perhaps McCoy can produce this, perhaps he has shown improved consistency when chasing the distant figure of Kauto Star. But he seems to struggle jumping left handed, as all his best form is when turning right.
It might pay to ignore these in favour of The Listener though. There has been plenty of fuss made about the ground, with no favourites winning on day one. If the Jockeys are to be believed – and they should – then it is riding soft, and yesterdays conditions could leave the ground very tacky. In which case we need a mount strong enough to get through tough underfoot conditions. Pay no attention to his last two runs as he’ll love the return to this shorter trip, and focus on his opening run this season. Over 20 furlongs, on heavy ground, he trounced a good grade 1 field by 19 lengths. There is a misconception that when horses perform well when it’s very soft, that they can’t produce their form over drier. This is not the case for the selection, who should be backed heavily here.
SNEER: Despite the poor start to the festival for the favourites, I cannot look past Inglis Drever winning this for the third time. He is a course specialist, having been in the front two in six outings here. He beat his closest rival by 5 lengths on this course in January (and put a few others in their place that day). There is no case to make for Blazing Bailey to reverse that form and that is why he is a worse price than in January, but surprisingly Inglis Drever's odds are the same. Presumably that is because other horses are seen as a threat to Inglis Drever.
I find it difficult to see where this threat comes from. Many of the horses in contention have been aimed at this all season. My Way de Solzen has not had that luxury, as he was being lined up for the Gold Cup, until his chasing form proved inadequate. He only ran in the National Spirit as a preparation and so hasn't ran in a three-mile hurdle race all season. Having won two years ago he cannot totally be discounted, especially with in-form 'Choc' Thornton rating his chances. I don't think he will be able to get past Inglis Drever though. Lough Derg has been very well raced this season and finished infront of many in this race, including Kasbah, Hardy Eustace and My Way de Solzen. However, much of his best form has been at Ascot and much of his worst at Cheltenham
GTT:A quick look at the trends here gives us a few very useful clues. Since 1998 only two horses have won at shorter than 12/1 (7/4 and 7/1), but no horse has won starting longer than 25/1. This has been won by all ages, and all weights but has a habit of going to a high powered stable, with Martin Pipe and Nicky Henderson accounting for six of the last ten. However, it might be dangerous to discount the little man today. C E Longsden has returned a level stake profit of £88.94 over the last five seasons, and has won three of his last six. Today he saddles the very attractively priced Mighty Matters.
Upped in class but still ahead of the handicapper, his main worry might be the racing surface. If it doesn’t get sticky then he has an excellent chance and his connections will be hoping that by four o’clock the turf will have dried out. Fresh from a mid season break and a solid jumper, he certainly should not be as big as the 16.5 currently being offered on Betfair. He is a confident selection but enthusiasm must be tempered with the number of big stables with representatives, so don’t get too carried away.
SNEER: Two 50/1 winners of this fixture in the past four years will have punters looking for big prices. This is certainly a good chance to oppose the favourite, Robin du Bois, as his recent form leaves almost everything to be desired. He fell at his last, hasn't won in six or been placed in five. Miko de Beauchene's form has been far more impressive and he could well end up as the SP favourite. He has won the Welsh National and then won a fairly competitive handicap off of top weight. He likes to go left-handed; the only doubt I have is whether his form just proves he has great stamina and will want further than this.
There is some confusing form between many of the other runners in this race in the Pertemps qualifier at Haydock. It seems that Ballyfitz is most likely to repeat that form and win again. He has been risen 7lbs for it, but is still well in with many rivals and may enjoy it a little firmer than good to soft, which is what is expected for Cheltenham today.
GTT:With no trends to guide us this is possibly the trickiest puzzle of the day. Trainer of new Champion Hurdler Katchit Alan King has his stable back on the money, and he saddles useful entrant Nykel. Before falling last time he was showing progressive form, and if he can get over that experience conditions are set for a real challenge here.
Another interesting runner is Burntoakboy, whose previous poor run can be put down to the underfoot conditions. He loves a soft three miles, and was showing decent form before that recent below par effort. However, it is a long time since he last had his head in front so have a nibble on him to make the frame.
SNEER: Unsurprisingly Willie Mullins has a strong line-up in this one, with four horses in contention. Apt Approach has the best chance out of them as the horse he beat easily to get here (Grancore Girl), has since gone on to win comfortably at Clonmel. Big Eared Fran also has good form with a horse that went on to win, but the winning distance wasn’t as impressive as Apt Approach’s and he has been off the track for 123 days now. Corskeagh Royal appeals, as unlike many of the horses, he has run well a few times, so we do not have to work out if his win could have been a fluke. Bearing that in mind, I feel sure he will run a big race here.
Cockleshell Road is a slightly bigger price despite a comfortable win at Fairyhouse in December. This is probably owing to the fact that that race was on heavy ground. A bit of form on slower ground may not be such a bad thing though, if the rain continues at Cheltenham throughout Wednesday. The favourite Zaarito has been very impressive, but even the best of horses needs a bit of luck in running and it is always worth avoiding short favourites in large inexperienced fields. Any one of about ten could win this, so I would advise looking for horses that are most likely to be thereabouts.
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