UKIP well if Labour fail on Thursday

Driving you to betting success

Nap: UKIP to win more seats than Labour at 2.22 (Betfair)

Whilst Gordon Brown slowly joins Anthony Eden in the Blue Square Premier of Prime Ministers, the Labour party are hitting record lows in the polls. Psephologists of the Left thought it couldn’t get worse than the old Michael Foot donkey jacket days but recent polls are placing Labour below the Lib Dems in general election preferences. Add to this the recent resignations of Jacqui Smith and Tom Watson (no not the multiple Open winner) and these elections could be catastrophic for Brown. UKIP are the natural protest vote in European elections in normal times, voters seeing these and local elections as a rehearsal to protest in before they make their actual choice between the main parties in a general election. However in the midst of the expenses fiasco, many more will choose to avoid the big three with all parties being affected (albeit in different magnitudes), as the public expresses a general revulsion at the current political class.

The current polls are likely to exaggerate Labour support as pollsters wrongly expect their to be a turnout of over 35% based on the last European elections. In reality this is likely to be far lower as Brown has not pushed postal voting anywhere near to the lengths of Blair, and many Labour voters are likely to prefer apathy rather than changing their vote. A turnout around or under 30% will see Labour in third place. 2.22 is a great price for an odds on shot in reality. 3pt Win

Seano’s shouts: Mitchell Johnson at 20/1 to be top tournament bowler and Shane Watson at 5/1 to be top Australian Batsmen (Betfair)

Mitchell Johnson has been one of the rising stars in world cricket over the past two years, the first left armer with extra pace and consistency since the retirement of Akram. His role in the Australian 20/20 team is simple: taking wickets. Ponting used him in the warm up game in one over spells, as his cricketing hit-man if you like. Australia are likely to go all the way in this competition and 20/1 will provide a great back to lay option after the group stages. 2pt Win

Shane Watson has been plagued by injury in his international career but is, in my book, one of the most impressive one day batsmen around, combining blistering power with consummate technical ability. He will open up for Australia in the world cup giving him maximum time to make an impact. Ponting runs favourite in this market but expect Watson to make a big impression on this competition. 1pt Win

Horse: Emmrooz to win the 16:10 at Nottingham at 2.06 (Betfair)

The improving Emmrooz should stand superior to his competitors in this afternoon’s battle at Nottingham. A good run at Dubai in February displayed the promise he is showing on return and should triumph comfortably in suitable conditions. 1pt Win

Outsider: Vijay Singh to win the Memorial at 25 (Betfair)

This week’s golf is very hard to call with so many in form players with great course records. Memorial tends to be won by a big name, testament to the difficulty of the golf course and the strong field it always attracts. Woods returns this week and between 1999 and 2001 he won a hat-trick of Memorials. Woods is 3/1 for this week’s contest which isn't value with lots of big players on a hot streak. If I had to pick one, Vijay Singh has been quietly regaining his form after a couple of years marred by injury. The key with Vijay is his putting, if he holes a few then the rest of the field will be left behind. With a win in 1997 and a second in 1999 Singh knows how to win at Memorial. This is a highly competitive field but the big Fijian looks the best value out of a tough bunch. 1pt Win

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