It's over - the Roses battle is all but lost

I sincerely hope that sod’s law prevails and because I’ve made such a confident prediction of our failure, York will perform sporting miracles tomorrow and turn things around. But because it’s sod’s law I’m guessing the only time I want it to work is when it won’t.

The final official tally from Saturday puts Lancaster on 120.5 points, with some of the late results not yet added to the overall scores, presumably because the event stewards had been forced to choose between filling out their scorecards and drinking – the sports centre is an alcohol-free zone. Since there are a grand total of 264 Roses points at stake this year, 132.5 are needed in order to guarantee a win, which means Lancaster are within touching distance to say the least.

With 56 points up for grabs on Sunday, the hosts need to secure a maximum of a quarter of those to take back the Carter-James trophy. Firstly, adding six points to Lancaster’s total from their unconfirmed draw in the Hockey Men’s 1sts and triumph in the Squash Women’s 2nds takes them within six points of their goal.

And there are all kinds of unexpected quarters those six points could arrive from: victories in the climbing would seal it, or ballroom dancing and a canoe slalom. Heaven knows how the watching supporters will follow the scoring in those events – never mind the press – but the tournament could be over with most of the student populace still fast asleep (i.e. before 11am).

Even if York do survive the perils of the dance floor and the bouldering wall, all the events from then on are either exhibition matches or 1st team fixtures counting for four points, with the one exception of the Men’s Rugby 2nds which is a two-pointer. That means York could only afford to lose one game, or draw two, out of 10. Hardly a margin for error that smacks of certainty.

Dabbling in the prognostic arts again, I’ll go for rugby as a reliable source of victories and hence 10 points, and if that jinxes them I’ll expect to feel the full wrath of Mike Callis – now there’s a spectator sport. Elsewhere, York have a better BUCS record than the hosts in Tennis and Lacrosse, which are worth a combined 20 points, but the reverse is true in Volleyball and Basketball which are good for a dozen.

So on that basis the odds do stack up in York’s favour, except BUCS form is a notoriously bad predictor of Roses form, as York’s success in the hockey and lack of it in the football bear testament to. And of course, it could all be decided by one karate kid’s sense of balance.

All in all, the picture that emerges is one which I am determined will fit the boat symbolism I spuriously began yesterday: after a fair-weather start which set York full speed ahead to catch the Red Rose, once the Lancastrian rainclouds arrived the tide turned and the wind dropped out of York’s sails. Soon the afternoon thunderstorm had all but destroyed the good ship Yorkshire, with captain Emily “Tom” Scott calling for all hands on deck to keep the vessel afloat. If any crewmember falters then the White Rose will sink and the precious Carter-James treasure will be gone for good.

Simply put, though York could still win tomorrow, it would be an even bigger stretch than that ship metaphor, and such things are just not meant to be.

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