From 30 to 23...

The friendlies against Mexico and Japan, on 24th and 30th May respectively, will go a long way to determining which of those 30 players get to board the plane to South Africa, and who spends this summer elsewhere. But there are already a number of players that you just know will be at the World Cup.

It’s rare for a nation to not take three goalkeepers to the World Cup, so although they won’t all play, David James, Joe Hart and Robert Green can all expect to be in South Africa. If John Terry can shake off his foot injury, he’ll almost certainly be lining up in defence alongside Glen Johnson, Rio Ferdinand and Ashley Cole for England’s opening fixture against the U.S.A. Looking at the provisional squad, I’d be very surprised if Jamie Carragher didn’t also make it to South Africa; he’s the only person other than Johnson with much experience at right back, and that Capello coaxed him out of international retirement is a sure sign that the Liverpool vice-captain is wanted.

Of the provisional 30, 17 players are midfielders or strikers. But I’d say only three of those 17 – Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and Wayne Rooney – are definitely going to the World Cup. There are a number of players who’ll probably be going, but the Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United trio are the ones you’d put money on. Gareth Barry would be a certainty for South Africa too, in my opinion, if it wasn’t for his injury; but it seems the former Aston Villa captain will be touch and go right up until Capello names his final squad.

So which “probablies” will board that all-important plane alongside the “definites”? Leighton Baines or Stephen Warnock can expect to be in the squad as cover for Ashley Cole; my personal preference would be Warnock, who I’ve admired since he was a Liverpool fringe player, but I think Baines is far more likely to make the final cut. On form and ability, I’d choose Ledley King ahead of Matthew Upson or Michael Dawson, but I think Tottenham’s skipper could miss out due to his fitness problems. Upson seems to have been an ever-present in Capello’s squads, and Dawson is my wild-card prediction after an excellent season.

Much has been made of Capello’s concerns over Joe Cole’s form and fitness, and he was considered an outsider for the provisional squad. But I have confidence in “the other Cole” to impress Capello enough over the next few weeks to make it into the final 23; he’s versatile and at his best, he has the ability to be a matchwinner. I think James Milner’s versatility will also get him into the squad after having a great season for Villa. There’ll be fierce competition between Michael Carrick, Tom Huddlestone and Scott Parker for a place in the squad; I’d expect at least one of those three to make it to South Africa, maybe two depending on the final assessment of Gareth Barry. Parker was West Ham’s player of the season by quite a distance, so I would pick him ahead of Huddlestone or Carrick, and given Carrick’s underwhelming season for United I’d opt for Huddlestone if Barry fails to regain fitness in time.

I don’t see either of the two Man City wingers, Adam Johnson or Shaun Wright-Phillips, making the final squad. Johnson has impressed this season, but at this stage in his career I think he’d be a gamble. And Wright-Phillips has been too been too much of a fringe player at City to justify a place in South Africa. Theo Walcott and Aaron Lennon would be safer bets, in my opinion; with their pace and ability, Walcott and Lennon can put any defence in the world under pressure.

At last, but certainly not least, there’s the strikers. Of the four strikers that aren’t Wayne Rooney, I see three making it to South Africa. With 25 and 23 goals respectively this season, I would take both Darren Bent and Jermain Defoe. But my gut feeling is that one of them will miss out so that there’s room for both Emile Heskey and Peter Crouch in the squad. Capello is a big fan of the Heskey/Rooney dynamic, and if Heskey gets injured during the tournament Crouch can fill “the Heskey role”. If it’s down to a choice between Defoe and Bent, I see Defoe getting the nod; he has more international experience, and has achieved more on the international stage.

So those are my predictions; but with Capello not set to name his squad until 1st June, things could easily change. Players could pick up injuries (they always seem to in a World Cup year) and some of the players I’ve dismissed could play superbly against Mexico and/or Japan, making it very difficult for Capello to drop them. I’ll be excited when the final 23 are announced, and no doubt I’ll offer you my thoughts again then.

My predicted 23: Joe Hart (Manchester City), David James (Portsmouth), Robert Green (West Ham), Leighton Baines (Everton), Jamie Carragher (Liverpool), Ashley Cole (Chelsea), Michael Dawson (Tottenham), Rio Ferdinand (Manchester United), Glen Johnson (Liverpool), John Terry (Chelsea), Matthew Upson (West Ham), Gareth Barry/Tom Huddlestone (Manchester City/Tottenham), Joe Cole (Chelsea), Steven Gerrard (Liverpool), Frank Lampard (Chelsea), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham), James Milner (Aston Villa), Scott Parker (West Ham), Theo Walcott (Arsenal), Peter Crouch (Tottenham), Jermain Defoe (Tottenham), Emile Heskey (Aston Villa), Wayne Rooney (Manchester United)

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