Remember your history but avoid mythology at this year’s World Cup

So here’s my analysis of the high fliers and flops for this year:

Spain – Prediction: Final

After their Euro 2008 victory Spain are being touted as big favourites and how can one argue after they dominated their qualifying group and have a fairly easy route to the final. However there are a few things you should bear in mind before you run to the bookies with a cheeky tenner in hand. Spain have never won the World Cup before and notoriously buckle under the pressure of football’s highest stage. The Euro championships is a very junior event to the World Cup, as shown by its various freak winners in recent decades (Greece, Denmark, and USSR to name but a few) compounded by the fact that no European team has ever won the World Cup outside of their home continent. Also Spain have several injury worries with Xavi, Torres, Fabregas and Iniesta all suffering from long term injuries. I think Del Bosque’s men will do well to get to the final.

Brazil – Prediction: Winners

Now I am sure you will hear how “different” this Brazilian team’s physical, no-frills counter attacking football is to their usual samba passing football. This is a common myth: Brazil have not played such football since 1982. But they are your best bet to win this year after a confident qualifying campaign. Kaka is the centre of this team and they will hope he can regain his flagging La Liga form. They have struggled against teams who park the bus, as seen in their 0-0 draw at home to Bolivia in qualifying, but Brazil are a fantastic unit and stand out as clear favourites for me.

England - Prediction: Semi Finals

We are better than usual but still not good enough. In England’s favour is a seemingly simple route to the semi finals (past Germany and Uruguay on my wall chart) thereby delaying our usual elimination from the quarters. The truth about England is we are not technically gifted enough to win international competitions. We may think Gerrard and Lampard are world class, but in reality a whole team of similar players do not break down the best defences. Our price at 7/1 is one of the biggest lay opportunities I have seen all year.

Argentina – Prediction: Semi Finals

With Maradona barely scraping through qualifying and using over 100 players in the process it is hard to see how Argentina will do well. Everything says to me they will be awful: playing four slow centre backs in defence, playing all their games at high altitude, picking six strikers including 36 year old Martin Palermo whilst leaving out Zanetti and Cambiasso after their Champions League win with Inter. But often teams who have had chaotic preparations often win World Cups – Brazil almost not qualifying in 2002, Italy’s calciopoli affair before 2006 – it is all about peaking at the right moment. Plus they can call upon arguably the best attacking talent in the world with Aguero, Messi, Milito, Di Maria and Higuain at their disposal.

Big Flops: Italy (groups stages), Germany (last 16) and France (last 16)

Italy struggled through qualifying as the veterans that won the 2006 trophy were not suitably replaced. Lippi has tried several systems in desperation in the build up but still lacks enough attacking force or creativity to take the Azzuri far. Don’t be surprised if they are the biggest flop of the tournament and are out in the group stages.

“You can never write off Germany” we always hear. Well right here and now I am officially writing off Germany. With no Ballack and their main two frontmen Gomez and Klose out of form, Germany will falter in South Africa with Serbia most likely pipping them to first place in group D. England should knock them out in the last 16.

France have the benefit of the easiest group in the tournament giving them safe passage to the knockout stage. Their qualifying campaign was unimpressive and so was a 1-0 loss to China in their final build up game. Like Italy and Germany they lack a main striker and with a poor coach their 1998 triumph will seem a distant memory.

Dark Horses: Serbia (Qtr Finals), Paraguay (Qtr finals)

Serbia are the team most likely to come under the radar this year. Antic has a squad brimming with talent with the well known names of Vidic, Ivanovic and Krasic combining to the tremendous prospects of Kacar and Jovanovic. As part of Yugoslavia they have reached five quarter finals and two semis and are my hottest outside tip for the tournament.

Paraguay beat Brazil and Argentina on their way to South Africa and have reached the last 16 in two of the last three World Cups. The squad boasts huge attacking talent with Cardozo, Santa Cruz and the emerging Barrios and should take advantage of a lack lustre Italian side in the groups. One of the above strikers is a great outside punt for the golden boot if they plunder New Zealand.

Other notable mentions go to Holland who will be the most exciting side of the tournament, although a likely quarter final clash with Brazil will probable signal their end. As for the African sides, the best one (Egypt) didn’t qualify. Ivory Coast may be without Drogba, Ghana are without Essien and Cameroon and Nigeria are woeful defensively. I don’t think any of them will get out of the group stages.

Whatever happens it will be a football feast for a few weeks so good luck with any bets, sweepstakes and fantasy teams and hopefully I can look back at this column without too much embarrassment.

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