The Yorker on the Ashes: Despite the Hopeful Hype, the Aussies are Still Favourites

Thousands of cricket fans across the nation are preparing to drastically alter their sleeping patterns as the greatest cricket series of them all – The Ashes – begins in Australia tonight. England are looking to retain the urn they won back in 2009, but to do so must win or draw the five match series on Australia’s home turf – something they haven’t done in 24 years.

The build up to this series has been unusual in that England’s preparation has gone better than Australia’s. They have looked good since victory in 2009, drawing against an impressive South African side, then comfortably defeating Bangladesh and Pakistan. Leading up to this series there have been no big injuries or selection issues, and the players have displayed encouraging form in the warm-up matches.

Australia’s preparation, meanwhile, has been uncharacteristically messy. They go into this series on the back of three consecutive test defeats, and star players are lacking form or fitness. On top of this, their board of selectors have been heavily criticised for initially selecting a 17-man squad for the series. This may only be a small issue in the grand scheme of things, but it is reflective of an increasing apprehension and anxiety in Australia; 56% of the Australian public, usually so confident and bullish, predicted an England victory in a recent poll.

Gone are the days where Warne, McGrath, Gilchrist and co would swagger to victory, outclassing England in every way and prompting a collapse any moment they looked like recovering. Whereas in the past it sounded all too plausible, Glenn McGrath’s traditional prediction of 5-0 to Australia this year seems laughable. Yet in spite of all this, Australia remain the bookies favourite to win the series - and for good reason. Their form may indeed look bad, but only because in recent history they have been so consistently dominant. Just because Australia may not be as strong as they were then does not mean they won’t still beat England. They may have slipped to 5th in the world rankings, but England is only one position ahead of them – hardly grounds for predicting a comfortable England victory.

In terms of personnel, Australia just about edges it. As in 2009, neither batting line up looks particularly strong, although Australia’s is more impressive with their best batsmen averaging in the high 40s/low 50s (i.e. Ponting, Clarke, Hussey) compared to England’s best who average in the low-to-mid 40s (i.e. Strauss, Cook, Pieterson). Further testament to Australia’s superiority with the bat is that in tests since the last Ashes series (excluding those against Bangladesh), Australia has a first-innings average score of 373, compared to England’s 333.

Unlike 2009, conditions won’t suit England’s pace bowlers Anderson and Broad, who will find it impossible to generate the swing they used to devastate Pakistan’s batsman last summer and the Aussies the year before. As for Australia’s attack, be prepared to witness the Mitchell Johnson we heard about in 2009, rather than the one we saw falter in action, and Doug Bollinger will be dangerous if fit. England does though possess a lethal weapon in Graeme Swann, by far the best spinner on display, and England’s main potential match winner.

Above all, Australia’s home advantage will be the hardest obstacle for England to overcome. The statistics are frightening; England has won only 3 of their last 26 tests in Australia, all of which were dead-rubbers. And only South Africa has claimed series win there in the past 16 years.

England stands its best chance of an away Ashes win in years this time round, but to do so must perform at the very top of their game. Australia may seem more vulnerable than ever, but still have the weight of history on their side.

My prediction: Australia win 3-2 - Good weather and unimpressive batting line-ups ensure no draws, and Australian suitability to home conditions gives them edge.

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