Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
The Premiership is getting to that stage of the season where we should stop writing off results which seemed strange, and start to realise that teams like Blackburn, Portsmouth (and until last weekend Manchester City) may just be having good seasons, writes Adam Kynaston-Smith.
If we realise this before the bookie, then we have every chance of making some money. This is why I think Blackburn are a good bet to beat Liverpool; they have had an underrated season so far. Liverpool will be without Torres and the goals haven’t come easily without him in the side. Blackburn’s front pair on the other hand, have quickly formed a fruitful partnership. Blackburn are availiable at 3.15 on Betfair.
The match between Arsenal and Manchester United (KO at 12:45 pm Saturday on Sky Sports 1) has 1-1 draw written all over it. United are good at the back, but Arsenal excel in breaking teams down. If it was at Old Trafford I would tip United to win, but at the Emirates Tevez and Rooney will have fewer chances and it has to be the draw. 1-1 is availiable at 9/2 with paddypower.com, and the draw is currently at 9/4.
If you can tear yourself away from the finale of the clash at the Emirates then the 2:30 at Down Royal looks like being a very interesting race. The last time Taranis ran he lost to Monet’s Garden by 3 ½ lengths, which is respectable enough, given that Kauto Star only got a little closer last weekend. However, Taranis is unexposed over this distance. Justified ran out of steam last year, but this was on far tackier ground than is predicted for Saturday. The Listener would have every chance if the conditions were more like last year’s race, but he does not impress on firmer ground, as he showed in the Gold Cup in March. I can't split Taranis or Justified, so take whichever opens at the longer price.
The 3:30 at Wetherby presents two interesting bets as I see it, depending on what sort of a gambler you are. If you want big payouts on horses unfairly priced then look no further than Bewley’s Berry. He would have had a great chance in the National had he stayed up, and he could take this shorter course and simpler fences in his stride. Alternatively, Aces Four has had strong runs in his last six races, and he too could have taken the spoils in his last race had he stayed up. State of Play cannot be written off, but his last two runs did not impress even though he was being beaten by very tough opposition.
Newmarket this saturday throws up the event won last year by Cecil’s Group 1 winner Passage of time – beaten favourite for the oaks, and a brave third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf last week – but the bet of the day may be provided by the 2.40. Saeed Bin Suroor took this last year with Into the Dark, and at 7/4 Fairmile looks a stunning bet to make it consecutive wins for the Godolphin trainer, writes George Taylor.
Pinpoint has been running weakly in some large fields, so today’s field of six may suit, but the step up in distance represents a major doubt with his best form over nine furlongs. Mashaahed looks increasingly difficult to win with, and he may be flattered by his second last time out so is comfortably opposed with today’s selection. The remaining dangers are represented by the three year olds making up the field, but despite generous weight for age scales provided late in the season, it seems only a tactical affair can deny the favourite. Fairmile is at the top of his form, best over today’s trip, and is the confident nap.
Outside of the Premiership the fixture list has thrown up some cracking clashes this weekend, while Championship leaders Watford face West Brom, League One leaders Carlisle play their cup final with Leeds United in town. Watford are a massive 9 points clear of the Baggies already, and following two impressive away wins to nill at the expense of Coventry and Crystal Palace, they look big at 2.14 (11/10)– available on Betfair.
The bookies are struggling to get to grips with Leeds United, following a start to the season which under normal circumstances would have them 11 points clear at the top. But it is a tough away trip for Dennis Wise’s army, and they may have overcompensated. While it remains to be seen how much Poyet’s departure will have affected the side, they are facing a midfield crisis, with Radostin Kishishev, Ian Westlake, Captain Alan Thompson, Andy Hughes and Shaun Derry all absent. Carlisle on the other hand will be bolstered by the return of Jeff Smith and Neale McDermott. They looked far more assured when defeating Milwall 4 – 0 a few weeks ago (in contrast to Leeds’ nervous 4 – 2 victory), so it looks the time to oppose Leeds, who are available to lay at 2.72 (7/4) on Betfair.
Other value can be found in backing Everton to win at home, much like Blackburn they are still underrated and look set for an impressive run of results. The 1.7 (8/11) on offer with Betfair is simply too large against a newly promoted side. Arteta is a doubt, but Cahill seems to have found his form after a long lay off, and is a more than capable replacement. Bolster the bet with a nibble on Everton keeping another clean sheet at 5/4.
As you can see above, The Yorker will be running a naps competition between Sneer and Taylor, who will select one horse running over the weekend. Profits and losses will be recorded, and a winner announced at the end of the year.
For your benefit, and accountability on our part, we will be keeping track of all selections, and after this first weekend's results we will maintain a Profit and Loss with all the selections recommended by our tipsters.
We hope you enjoy our new tipping service, as always - if you agree or disagree with any views expressed in this article, then make your case using the comments section below.
If you're watching the Man City v Sunderland game tonight - then the value looks to be in the secondary markets. 4/6 is about right for a good Man City side playing a Sunderland team who need a result - so to find value we may need to look elsewhere.
City's last 13 score lines read…
0 - 1 (Bolton A)
6 - 0 (Chelsea A)
1 - 0 (Birmingham H)
3 - 1 (Middlesbrough H)
3 - 1 (Newcastle H)
1 - 0 (Norwich H)
3 - 3 (Fulham A)
1 - 0 (Villa H)
1 - 0 (Blackburn A)
1 - 2 (Bristol A)
1 - 0 (Arsenal A)
1 - 0 (Man U H)
1 - 0 (Derby H)
But what can we draw from these results that will help us find value? The first impression is the quantity of 1 - 0 score lines, 62% of city's last 13 games in all competitions have had just the one goal. However, bizarrely, the other 5 have averaged 4.6 goals.
Backing over 4.5 goals is currently 7.6 (13/2) on Betfair. However, let's not jump into the conclusion, that just because in 5/13 games the average has been 4.6, that there has been more than 4.5 goals in each. Looking at the results, just two of 13 have achieved this figure. So with the price roughly 13/2 the bookies seem to have this covered. If we switch to the over 3.5 goals market, then the odds are even tighter, with City shorter than 3/1, when they have only reached the 4 goal mark in 4 of our 13.
But if we can rely on our main assumption, that previous events can be used to predict a future outcome, then backing 1 - 0 is an unavoidable conclusion. Of the 8 one nills the Blues have played this season, only one has been an away win, and only two have been losses. So, despite Sunderland’s prolific goal scoring (they have scored at least one in their last six games), it might pay to side with City this time. Who are available at 7.6 (13/2) to win 1 – 0 (Betfair).
Taylor’s Tip –
1pt City to win 1 – 0 at 13/2
If you're a fan of the first goalscorer markets then you can't fail to have noticed Elano's current form - but his price has contracted to such an extent that value has been created elsewhere. Any of Samaras, Bianchi and Mpenza appeal - and it might pay to wait till confirmed team news before getting involved in this market - but it is Petrov who appeals most at the prices. Sunderland may not play the most attractive football, and with Petrov's stunning free kicks, he may be the one to break the deadlock.
0.5pt Petrov First Goal Scorer. Currently 10.5 on Betfair.
Elano takes the free kicks though doesn't he?
Petrov takes some but I think you're right - hope you followed the 1-0 tip though!
Very good George - did u back 1-0? NAPSwise we had a quiet week, but we got a few right overall, so that's not too bad.
Yeh I did, i also backed city before the start (they drifted to 1.8) and at half time (2.3) - but was so certain sunderland would get something late I traded out of most of the profit!
I think we've had a really good week - you had the draw in the Man U game, tipped the first two home in the Down Royal Race, Everton Won, Leeds lost (although I can't take much pleasure from that) and the city tip puts me into profit.
Naps wise - I was seriously disappointed with the way aces four ran, I don't know what was wrong there. My tip started 4/5 and I underestimated the form of hill's horses.
Bring on next week!
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