Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
-17pts
International bets are always a bit of an unknown entity, but there are good value bets to be had in England’s qualifying group this weekend writes Adam Kynaston-Smith. All eyes are on Israel, as England desperately want Russia to slip up in Tel-Aviv. Usually, England’s odds are over-inflated, due to patriotic punters. This weekend, things have swung the other way as the confidence in England’s EURO campaign has all but died and punters are pouring money on Russia to beat Israel. However, I would much rather lay the Russia win at 1.53 on Betfair. I do not really see Israel winning, but they are no pushovers at home, having drawn with England and Ukraine lately, and narrowly losing to top of the table Croatia (4-3). Russia’s away form is hardly inspiring either, as they have won just two of their last eight outside of Russia. Although Israel only have wafer thin qualification hopes, sometimes teams put in the best performances when they find themselves in this position.
Cheltenham – 2:35 In a race such as this one, it is advisable to back each way, due to the likelihood of congestion affecting horses’ performances. Because of this I will try to offer hints for the not so daring gambler as well. The favourite, Granit Jack, has a great chance in this race but he is untested on this ground. This is too big a question mark for a horse to make it value at this short price. L’Antartique looks likely to challenge here as he has won at this course in a similarly large field and has been in the top two in six of his last eight races. Although Bob Hall was beaten narrowly by three of his rivals today, he is well in at the weights; being better off against Knowhere, Private Be and L’Antartique following those defeats. Another factor in Bob Hall’s favour is that McCoy has won this race four times in the last 10 years and is on board Bob Hall today. Idole First is another danger, who has risen just 5lb after a comfortable festival win, and has won his last two over this going and distance. Don’t be surprised if he puts another top performance in today. If you fancy an each way with a bit of value then you could do much worse than to bet on the outsider Billyvoddan. He was pulled up in the National in April but was within a length of the impressive Taranis over this distance earlier in the year.
Cheltenham – 3:40 Not a race for the favourites. Only two have won in the past 10 years. Bob Bob Bobbin could not keep up with Gold Cup pace in March and seems to have had just one good win at this stage last year, which tempts me to back him. Unfortunately, that’s not enough for a race of this standard. Simon looks exceptional value here as he would have had every chance of winning the Grand National if he’d stayed up. He firmly put Cornish Sett in his place in February and has potential to improve again here. Cornish Sett gains 10lb on Simon, but did not impress in his last run out. It should be close between Baron Windrush and D’Argent but between them on good to soft or better they have pulled up four times, unseated twice and finished last in the other. L’Ami and L’Aventure are still highly rated horses but I think it would be unwise to tip horses that haven’t won in their last 16 and 10 runs respectively.
Currently recording a 4.48pt profit, which if you had been following at £10 per point would have you in a healthy profit of £44.80. Try taking that to Ziggy's and coming home sober.
Franchoek has been given a hefty RPR figure for an impressive thrashing at Chepstow, and looks to replicate Katchit's path to glory here in the 2.00 at Cheltenham. But, the horses Franchoek had behind at Chepstow had not done much since, and - unlike Katchit - Franchoek could only manage third first time out, 7 1/2 lengths behind Falcon's Fire. Falcon's Fire comes here a few weeks fresher and can be expected to enforce his superiority over the favourite. Franchoek looks the staying type and may end up wanting further, so today's conditions could play into the hands of Mrs A Duffield's mount - a 7 furlong winner last year.
The rest of the field contains many dangers, as it will in this kind of race, including a handy French import under the guidance of Pipe and McCoy, whose experience should stand her in good stead, especially the course and distance win last time out. Paco Jack ran well under a double penalty at Listowel last time so also has to be respected. Given the dangers in the field it might pay to keep stakes small on this one, but Falcon's Fire may just be something special so don't miss out.
The 3.10 is a very tricky equation, one which relies on the fitness of Blazing Bailey. The horse has the best form on offer, but faces a mammoth task to give over a stone to his opponents on his reappearance. Trading at about 2/1 the Alan King mount will certainly go on to bigger things this season, so this may be viewed as a warm up gig for the real challenges ahead. Lyes Green finds winning hard, so it might pay to oppose the favourite with last time out winner Sonnyanjoe.
T Hogan has had the old warrior going all season, but the gelding has just found a bit of form so this is the time to back. Given Blazing Bailey's rating six of these are carrying more than their official mark, but that isn't the case for Sonnyanjoe, who can be expected to give his all with conditions in his favour. The 7/2 with Ladbrokes is too long and should be taken, but it may pay to keep an eye on the market as often horses like Blazing Bailey can drift or shorten markedly. If, like Kauto Star a month ago, the favourite shortens to silly prices, then the selection might drift so bolster the bet with a nibble at SP.
By 5 o'clock however, all eyes will be on Scotland. Can they do it? Few believed Celtic would beat AC Milan, few believed Scotland could have done the double over France, but now people are starting to believe.
And it could be their downfall.
Scotland are playing the world champions, whilst they themselves have not even competed a major tournament for 10 years. Italy were simply not troubled by the Scots when they met last time, and although it will be a completely different atmosphere at Hampden Park, Italy are overpriced at 2.14 on Betfair. There is a culture in Italian football that when the chips are down, they get the job done. This was exemplified when AC Milan were turned over at home to relegation strugglers at the end of last season. The game was irrelevant for Milan, but only three points would do for their opponents.
Scotland will win nothing from playing physical, if anything they will need to be at their most physical to even compete, so they will have to come at the Azzurri and play football. But they should be outplayed as the away side are so solid at the back - even despite Oddo's late departure - and have so much class looking forwards.
The main worry for the selection is the fact that, for the Italians, the draw will do. They will expect three points from their game in hand (at home to the Faroes) so they may settle for the draw, and those four points will ensure qualification. But the Scots will see it as all or nothing, and in their push for glory they may leave space for Luca Toni to win the game. So be brave and back the Azzurri to win the game. A patriotic punt often creates value, so while it may be hard to oppose a home nation in their biggest game this century, console yourself and your mates with your winnings after Roberto Donadoni's men have done the job.
The slow start in the Naps Competition continued last week, but as the season warms up so can our tipster's form.
Please keep your eye out for tips added to this article tomorrow, as Sneer and Taylor will bring you their finest advice from Cheltenham's Sunday Card via the comment boxes.
Spot on again, Italy grabbing a late winner, Russia failing to win in Israel, and Sonnyanjoe coming home at 5/2. Were you on?
The first race at Cheltenham (1.10 Ch4) today seems to be all about Predateur, who’s best form came when finishing five lengths behind Katchit at this course last year. The main obstacle in his path seems to be, well, the obstacles in his path. Although Nichols was bigging up the Juvenile when schooling with the unfortunate Granit Jack last week, 2/1 is a very short price to put on his faith and I think he can be opposed despite the fine record of favourites in this, the longest priced winner in 9 years was 100/30.
The next two in the market are the more interesting competitors from a betting perspective, both coming from wins last time out. Taramanto recorded some cracking RPR figures two seasons ago, and if the gelding is returning to the level of form he showed in November in 2005 and 2003, then he is readily preferred to Papini – who may not be getting his favoured conditions today.
Leslingtaylor arguably comes to the race with the best recent form, and looks to be crying out for fences so sets the benchmark here. However, this is Cheltenham and Leslingtaylor now carries a penalty. In what is a very wide open race this may prove the difference.
Backing Moon Over Mind represents a similar leap of faith to Predateur, but is a much more tempting 12/1 with Bet Direct. However, it may pay to watch these two for now and keep an eye on them for later in the season as today might belong to Taramanto. This race often goes to future superstars, with previous winners including Best Mate, Azertyuiop and Fair Along last year. But Taramanto has shown he could be this class given a clean bill of health, so is the value selection today. However due to the competitive nature of this race it is best to keep stakes low, and even go each way with the widely available 11/2.
The 2.20 replicates yesterday’s race where Blazing Bailey got overturned by my nap. Voy Por Ustedes is facing the same task as top weight, but is a class above Blazing Bailey. However, the booking of McCoy for River City inspires confidence that we might have another upset today. River City will be fit and fresh after a few blows on the all weather and at 4/1 isn’t the worst bet to give the favourite a difficult start to his season, especially given that the rest of the field are out of the handicap.
Selections,
0.5pt ew Taramanto
1pt win River City
Croatia vs. England is the culmination of a rollercoaster Group E but don't expect the game itself to be half as exciting as the rest of the qualification campaign.
A 0-0 draw looks excellent value on betfair at 8.6. I think most people are so excited about the game they are projecting their feelings onto it; although I predict it will be a thoroughly drab affair. Croatia are being written off after a poor result in Macedonia, but the only thing worse than their performance was the playing surface, which certainly had a lot to do with the loss.
England and Croatia have kept 9 and 8 clean sheets in qualification respectively and both defences will be very tight here. England's will be aided by the Wembley supporters and psychological reassurance that they have not conceded at home. Croatia's defence will have half the work, as England are believed to be playing a thoroughly unadventurous lone striker.
It's very encouraging before a match like this to hear the England players and manager promising to attack the opposition, but this is rarely the case. It sounds the right thing to do, but without an early goal both teams will naturally settle back into a defensive style. The closer they get to full time the higher the cost of a mistake.
A boring game, will mean England have done just enough to qualify and I can't imagine they would do it any other way.
1pt England vs. Croatia - Correct Score 0-0 (8.6 on Betfair)
Gotta agree with that advice, for those that trade in play this looks a classic back to lay opportunity.
Haha, well I guess I know even less about football than Steve McClaren!
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