Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
+10.9 pts
Horses like to do what they've done before, which is why Hardy Eustace is stonking value at 3/1 in the 1.50 at Ascot today. The champion hurdler from 2004, and 2005 took this event last year priced at 11/8. This year however, he is available at 3s with VCBet, and it is crying out to be taken.
Why the drift in price, despite an identical build up? The answer is lies in the presence of Afsoun. However, as last week, and the week before, it pays to avoid these talking horses - as their presence creates value elsewhere. Afsoun will certainly come on for his run today, and his trainer Nicky Henderson will be looking at bigger fish later this season, probably over three miles at the Cheltenham festival.
But that is a long way from today, and although he won first time out he may be best watched today on ground that may not suit.
In the last ten years only one horse has taken this event starting longer than 7/2 , so it makes sense not to get too involved in the outsiders this time. However, the claims of Detroit City and Wichita Lineman require close attention. Detroit city went wrong at the end of last year, but has every chance if he returns to his best. But that is a big if, and lacking the blowout that Hardy Eustace had on the flat recently, he is another best watched.
Wichita lineman on the other hand is a model of consistency, but on the figures looks like he has a bit to find. This should be a cracking race and many of these will feature in the classiest hurdles this season, but today's event should go to Hardy Eustace. The only lingering doubt about the selection is how much of his ability he has retained, but with conditions in his favour and a prep run under his belt - today might just be his swan song. 3/1 might not be around for long, so take it while you can.
The midday kick off in the Premiership today represents an intriguing betting equation. Newcastle are a team often very opposable, as their reputation precedes them. But the bookies aren't taking any chances after they got turned over by Harry's boys last time at home. Liverpool are a skinny looking evens to win the game, so we may have to dig a little deeper to find some value.
Newcastle have not kept a clean sheet in eight league games, since the 1-0 home win over Wigan on 1 September, and this is reflected in the 1/4 price about them conceding today.
Liverpool have, impressively, only conceded the opening goal in only one Premier League match this season, but have given away a leading position on four occasions this year. Their away form can be trusted, and they are also the draw specialists of the division (ironically shared - with Fulham six all). Newcastle have a lot to fight for today, it will be important for them to regain their momentum after that crushing defeat at the hands of Portsmouth.
So the draw, which is available at just shorter than 5/2 on Betfair looks the value, but seeing as it's on TV it might be worth having a few more speculative nibbles to maintain interest. Given Liverpool's tight defence, 1 - 1 is a tempting scoreline at 6/1. And, with Liverpool's habit of scoring first, but letting leads slip, the Liverpool/Draw scenario might be worth a dabble at 15/1. The last selection would put a Betfair player in a great position to trade on the outright market if Liverpool are winning at half time, so if you're brave double the stake on this to make the trade worthwhile.
-19pts
After an international break it’s tempting to think there may be changes to the Premiership. However, I think it will be business as usual today as a few towards the foot of the table are in dreadful form of late. writes Adam Kynaston-Smith.
When the big four take these relegation candidates on there is often little value in backing the favourites (e.g. Arsenal 1/6 vs. Wigan). In-form teams in the top half of the table offer much better odds, for just a small increase in the chance of a slip up.
Manchester City have had a great start to the season, largely due to their infallible home form. They have won all seven games at Eastlands so far and even more impressively, conceded just twice. Reading, on the other hand, have only gained one point out of a possible 18 away from home. Add to that the fact that Reading have conceded 19 in 6 and the game looks to be a foregone conclusion.
Unfortunately the bookies are not taking any chances. Manchester City are 8/13 to maintain their 100% record at home. If we look closer at the statistics however, there is still good value to be found.
Since the opening day of the season Reading have lost 5 on the bounce away and, what’s more, they have always conceded in the first 45 minutes. Manchester City have scored in the first half in five of their seven victories and look set to do so again against a defence as leaky as Derby’s on the road.
Aston Villa had been unconvincing away, but grabbed a late winner against their local rivals a fortnight ago. This shows that they will battle for the wins away from home, and you can expect Scott Carson to bounce back from Wednesday night. Even if he doesn’t he won’t be too troubled, as Middlesbrough do not have a great deal of attacking options this year after waving goodbye to prolific scorers Yakubu and Viduka.
'Boro have won just once at the Riverside - back on the 1st September - and since then they have been fairly uninspiring. They have scraped a few draws but I do not expect them to do so today. Villa’s strike force is in great form at the moment; Ashley Young is giving every defence he faces a headache and Agbonlahor has been consistently finding the net. I think Gareth Southgate could be the 6th Premiership manager to get sacked before Christmas, and pressure will certainly mount if Villa can take all the points here.
In the 1:35 at Haydock Taranis looks like the horse to beat. But without preferred jockey Ruby Walsh, other options look more attractive. Taranis was also reported to need a lead after his win at Down Royal and in this larger field that may be harder to find. Sonnyanjoe could be a good bet, as he won well at Cheltenham last weekend, but since that victory he has received a 10lb rise in the weights. He can't be dismissed out of hand however, and his Jock is claiming 7lb. The only other concern for the horse is whether this race against tougher opposition will come too soon after his win last week.
Last year’s winner, Halcon Genelardais, looks a great value bet here. A run on heavy ground in January and a tricky Gold Cup can excuse his last two runs, and the switch back to hurdles will suit him better than gruelling chases. Burnoakboy and Ungaro are the others being switched back to hurdles here. Burntoakboy’s unconvincing chases in company of lower quality horses leave a question mark. Ungaro is another who is not consistent enough to back here. He found himself out of the places in his last two runs over hurdles. Old Benny is the final one to consider here. He is previously untested at this standard but has every chance of progressing.
The small field in Haydock's 2.05 provides a fascinating puzzle for the 3 mile chase at Haydock. My Way de Solzen certainly looks an interesting bet. His form last year cannot be questioned. The only concern is whether he can stay the trip. He has won over this distance before over hurdles; but staying this long over fences is a different task. I think My Way de Solzen has every opportunity to win 3m chases; but asking him to beat horses of this calibre may be a bit much for his first attempt.
Exotic Dancer is an excellent horse, but has never finished in front of Kauto Star in three attempts. In his last attempt he was 7lb better off than he is today and still managed to finish 20 lengths behind today’s favourite. The biggest concern for Kauto Star is the jockey change. Ruby Walsh’s dislocated shoulder means Sam Thomas steps in. Owner and trainer seem positive about the swap, but will Thomas be able to allow Kauto Star his inevitable mistake? Kauto Star’s owner does express slight worries over the break. Perhaps last season he was raced too hard and that may have taken its toll.
I agree that Kauto Star will certainly find it harder this year and may not be able to repeat his Gold Cup win, but I think he can see off his rivals here. Away from the front three, Ollie Magern could run a big race if he repeats the form of his win at Wetherby and not last season’s.
Taylor took the early lead last week, when successfully napping Sonnyanjoe at 5/2
If you would be interested in joining the naps competition please email sport@theyorker.co.uk, or post a comment on this article. The rules are simple, the selection must be posted by midday Saturday (emailed or as a comment), and the horse must be running on the same Saturday.
Yet another belting week for the tipsters - both returning a profit on all selections, and both selecting winning naps. If you're not following them already, why?
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