Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
-16.40
Sneer recorded a profit of 2.6pts last week
The Premiership has been a Managerial Merry-go-round so far this season, and this Saturday we can expect another twist in the tale. There are two home wins on the cards; one for an out of form team with a new man in charge, and one against an out of form team, who are surely due a new manager. writes Adam Kynaston Smith
Wigan take on Manchester City today, and the match has all the makings of a surprise result. Man City are flying at the moment, but this is largely due to their excellent home form. Away from home they haven’t been as solid. Their case is certainly not helped by the absence of Elano, the outstanding playmaker.
Wigan may receive a boost, as many teams do, from having a new manager. They had a great start to the season, but have done very little since. They were just 10 minutes away from a point at the Emirates though last time, and perhaps Bruce will lift the players enough to pick up the win here. It does seem strange to tip Wigan based on their form, but extra factors here force me to think that Wigan have every chance at a good price.
However, I do not expect Middlesbrough to turn things around when they meet the underestimated Reading. Reading were just one minute away from a point at Manchester City and although that’s hardly top 6 form it’s far better than anything Middlesbrough have shown lately.
Last week I suggested Southgate would be in line for the sack, and I think another loss here will not help his case. Even if you do take my advice and have a flutter on Reading I don’t think this will be the most entertaining game of the weekend. Expect a low score in favour of the Royals.
But to whet our appetites before the 3 o'clock kick offs, we have the spectacle that is the Hennessy Gold Cup. At 2.40 we will be treated to the biggest race of the jumps season so far, and the line-up doesn’t disappoint. In large fields such as this, it often looks a good option to swerve the favourite in search of better value. In this race however, Denman looks like the horse to be on.
Sam Thomas has filled in well for Ruby Walsh so far and takes the reins on Denman on Saturday. The biggest factor against the favourite is the fact that he carries top weight, but that didn’t stop Trabolgan winning this race two years ago. Denman has hardly put a foot wrong in his previous races; winning his last five. It would take a great run from another to finish in front of him and I can’t see where that will come from.
New Alco looks good at the weights, but this weight didn’t suit him last year and he faces much tougher opposition here. Snowy Morning may give AP McCoy a chance to break his Hennessy duck. It is tempting to think he may benefit from finding himself 18lb better off against Denman, but I doubt this will allow him to pull 10 lengths back. His odds of 6/1 do not represent anywhere near the value that Denman does, especially considering he just did not feature in his last run out. Abragante is a lively prospect to be considered. He has been raised 14lb for his last run though and this standard may just be beyond him.
If you worry about backing to win in a field of 24 then I will look to a horse with a good price and chance of making the first four. In the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase Denman put Patsy Hall, Knowhere and Dom D’Orgeval firmly in their place. They are all better off in the weights this time, but unless there is a little more rain to suit Dom D’Orgeval then I can only see Knowhere featuring. He hasn’t been raised in the weights since his 3rd place in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He also won off top weight at Cheltenham six weeks ago. His season has certainly started well and I expect him to go close again here.
The boy does it again! Taylor recorded a profit of 3.5pts last week, meaning an incredible fourth successive profitable week.
+14.4pts
Over the last four weeks or so, we have been able to turn a nice profit by opposing horses having their first race of the year, taking on those with questionable match fitness, and laying those burdened with hefty weights. Today, the Hennessy gives us the chance to do all three, and the opportunity cannot be missed.
Denman's form figures look like row on row of cricket stumps, recording 8 wins from 9 starts, so he cannot be opposed lightly. If the beast has continued improving, and at 7 years old there is no reason why he shouldn't, then the gelding will be a serious force to be reckoned with. However, this is simply not his target this year. Nicholls has this one lined up for the Gold cup, and this just might be a blow out before winding up for a slant at Cheltenham's most prestigious race.
Things get easier from here on in.
Snowy Morning is another who may not be fresh first time out, something crucial to a race as competitive as this. Abragante looks a tricky one, with two impressive wins under his belt already this season he could prove to be half a stone 'in' at the weights - but he seems to do most of his work on the bridle, and with Denman sure to be there or thereabouts I just can't see Abragante having enough at the finish.
New Alco is a far more tempting proposition, coming from a convincing win at Carlise. If he can come on from that race, which is a looming doubt as that event might not amount to much, then he has every chance at these weights - but last year's form is off putting. As I hinted before, this will not be won easily and New Alco might not quite have the required edge in the finish.
Patsy Hall could be anything, while Character Building and Dom D'Orgeval are too having their first runs of the season. Each trainer will be pointing to their mount's finest form ahead of a race like this, but it might be Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Knowhere, who gets closest to the truth when saying, "People seem to have forgotten him". However, as Sneer has already tipped this one I will swerve the each way prospect.
With so many doubts surrounding the main opposing threats to Denman, it may seem logical to return to the favourite as he starts his campaign for Gold cup glory - but hold on a second. In Sir Rembrandt we have an excellent yardstick. Placed in the Gold Cups of 2004 and 2005, and now the signs are in place that he has returned to that form. Denman may well beat Sir Rembradnt coming up that hill come festival time, but today he has to do it giving well over a stone.
The selection switched stables over the summer, and the effect has been immediate. At the weights he has the highest RPR rating, and demolished the doubts concerning his fitness when trashing some useful types at Cheltenham last time out. If he is anywhere near the form he showed in 2004 and 2005, then he could just make his mark today look silly, and in doing so make 20/1 (Skybet) look the longest price of the season.
Time and time again, Newcastle and Tottenham are far too short. This weekend is no exception, take any evens you can get about Blackburn turning over the Toon Army - who were simply dismantled at home last week. Blackburn themselves were on the wrong end of a thrashing last week, but this represents such a good opportunity for them to bounce back.
Portsmouth are a club in turmoil with all the mudslinging arrests this week, and Everton's visit to Fratton Park represents a sound betting opportunity. Pompy are a tricky team to oppose, but this looks the time to strike. Everton will be flying in after scoring 7 last time, but although Redknapp's team achieved the same feat last month against Reading, they have struggled for goals at home since - so bolster the bet with a nibble on Everton clean sheet at 4.1 on Betfair.
Both tipsters finding winners, but consecutive winning picks from Taylor sees him extend his early advantage.
Today - Sir Rembrandt
Today - Denman
Denman destroyed them all - and at 5/1! Well done Sneer.
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