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Walking out of the cinema after seeing ‘He’s Just Not That Into You’, I nod in agreement to my friend’s comments of "that was soooo good", "what a feel good film", but I have a sneaking suspicion I may be lying.
Sounds ludicrous, doesn’t it? That’s because it is. This kind of story line wouldn’t even be believable in an episode of Doctor Who. Yet the doctors at WHO (the World Health Organisation) have declared swine flu to be a PHASE 5 OUTBREAK, only one step away from Phase 6, which, as we all know, is a PANDEMIC. And if that isn’t scary enough, the media have caught on and are telling us we’re all going to die. Now the good people of Britain are full of fear, demanding that their children are no longer fed ham sandwiches at school (true story) and panic-buying anti-bacterial hand gel (probably a true story). You see how a little trickle of over-cautiousness can turn into a raging river of scare-mongering?
The good people of Britain are full of fear, demanding that their children are no longer fed ham sandwiches at school.
Let’s look at the facts: swine flu, or influenza A (H1N1), to give it its full title, is a mutated virus, and is highly contagious. The connection to pigs is that this particular strain of flu contains molecules that are of “swine origin”, which means the pig acted as a giant porky petri-dish and created its own form of the virus after contracting another, possibly bird or human. The connection to Mexico is that the disease was first detected there, and it now has the highest number of people infected in the world.
Now let’s get things into perspective: this strain of the virus is no worse, per se, than your common or gardener seasonal flu virus; it is simply a new strain which no one has been vaccinated against. The symptoms are thought be the same, and deaths from it are likely to occur in the weak and vulnerable, again, just like seasonal flu. The death toll of 29 in Mexico proves this. Going to a country where a (relatively) large number of people have the disease will increase your chances of contracting it, and, of course, British tourists returning from these countries may spread it to others. But a very small percentage of Brits go to Mexico, and presumably an even smaller percentage spends their holidays rolling around with pigs.
So, what have the government done in response to the facts, which indicate that we might just be alright? Firstly, they’ve spent £500 million on an anti-swine flu drug. Secondly, they’ve aired adverts on TV at prime time telling the nation to use their common sense and not sneeze in someone’s face, but into a tissue. Thirdly, they’ve distributed leaflets nation-wide giving advice on what to do if you are or have been in contact with one of the 28 people in Britain who has swine flu. You can’t accuse them of not being thorough.
Perhaps I am being woefully cynical about this situation. Some might say my cynicism is a form of denial, a defence mechanism against the full effects of being told about my imminent death every time I turn on the TV or walk into a newsagent. People more mentally stable that I would say that the government are learning from past mistakes, from a time when 50 million people world-wide died of the Spanish flu. We weren’t prepared for a pandemic then…
But that was in 1918, and my cynical side can’t help but suggest that the government tries to learn from more recent mistakes, for example, how they dealt with the possible spread SARS, which seems to have only involved simple scare-mongering. They could even learn from a more recent and highly relevant situation; the spread of bird flu, which, quelle surprise, resulted in nothing.
To add a cynical conclusion, something needed to be done about swine flu, but the WHO and the government over-reacted. Then the media did what it does best and reported the situation in an irresponsible manner, which created panic and an unfortunate fashion for face masks. Still, the upshot of it is that we don’t really have anything to worry about. We should be as happy as pigs in shit. Oh, wait…
"But a very small percentage of Brits go to Mexico, and presumably an even smaller percentage spends their holidays rolling around with pigs."
You clearly have no idea about how a disease spreads. The answer is exponentially - even if one person gets it a pandemic is possible. In other words, even if there is one person in the UK who has the virus (and there are at least 15 as far as I know) then the disease can start spreading in an exponential rate. This is why the authorities need to stay on guard.
As for the actual danger: "Human strains of flu kill a few hundred thousand people worldwide every year, but strains of flu virus that originate in livestock such as pigs or chickens have the potential to kill millions worldwide if they start spreading among people. This is because, unlike ordinary strains of winter flu, humans have little resistance to them."
To put it otherwise, my apologies but your article was every bit as ridiculous as the hysteric media reports.
With all my respect who are you to say that the World Health Organisation 'overreacted'?
To clarify things, the designation 'Stage 5' means that "the WHO is aware of human-to-human transmission of an animal virus in at least two countries."
Can you deny that this is the case? If not, how can you say that the coordinating authority of international public health has 'overreacted'?
In fact, reaching 'Stage 6' would mean that "an animal virus has caused sustained community outbreaks in two or more WHO regions."
Which is arguably the case here, despite the fact that a pandemic has not been declared as of yet. So much for 'overreaction'.
And how could you ever know that we have 'nothing to worry about'? Are you a world leading professional Ms. Hebden, having established that the virus will not continue to spread and/or that it does not have the ability to mutate?
Yet another piece of irresponsible journalism. Science writing should really be left to the scientists.
I forget, aren't blogs opinion pieces?
In reality everything in journalism is an opinion piece, innit? That does not mean that it can not be subject to scrutiny.
It's all about R_0 and/or heavy tails.
Nobody can truly say what is going to happen, there is no "overreacting" or "underreacting". As with all of these swine flu debates (there are many) I direct you to an article by Mr. Ben Goldacre (a national treasure): http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/apr/29/swine-flu-hype
Stage 5 is a good description. Stage 6 is the highest level of threat and I would suggest that this is far from it. Swine flu doesn't seem as dangerous as Avian flu or SARS did.
A pandemic is generally associated with fast-spreading diseases and not simply ones that grow... The word 'exponentially' is important in what #1 says - the numbers aren't getting any more rapid though and most countries seem to have it under control. The media have blown it out of proportion.
However, there is still a chance that the virus will mutate further and become more dangerous or that it does start to grow exponentially. And meanwhile poorer countries still haven't got the health equipment needed to slow it down straight away. Which is why richer countries should help provide for them - people in the "West" can die from diseases that originate from poor health in the "third world"..!
Etc. I hope it doesn't get any worse and it probably won't. The media blew it out of proportion but it is a stage 5 threat. >.>
Also, "presumably an even smaller percentage spends their holidays rolling around with pigs" - I know that it is likely to be the case that the author knows it, but it's worth pointing out that rolling around with pigs can't give me swine flu. It's carried human-to-human. I hope nobody at this university thought otherwise!
JR: "Stage 6 is the highest level of threat and I would suggest that this is far from it."
And I suggest that you are not even reading other peoples' posts.
"Stage 6: an animal virus has caused sustained community outbreaks in two or more WHO regions."
How 'far from it' is it really? And is it really a matter of subjective opinion, i.e. what 'you suggest' is the case?
I wasn't suggesting that it was far from stage 6. I know the definition inside out. My point was that it could easily be categorised as a stage 6 and yet could get a thousand times worse. There is no way that 50 people in five countries should be the highest level of threat. AIDS, Spanish flu or smallpox are slightly more dangerous and would only get level 6 as well. To rephrase: "stage 6 is the highest level of threat and I would suggest that swine flu is far from being the most dangerous pandemic on the planet". Better? 
Jason Rose: "Stage 6 is the highest level of threat and I would suggest that this is far from it."
Jason Rose: "I wasn't suggesting that it was far from stage 6."
Bravo!
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