Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
Home advantage is not a new concept, but with 4 of the last ten winners of the African Nations Cup hosting the event, the trend simply cannot be ignored. This time it is Ghana with the advantage, and they have been installed as joint favourites with the Ivory Coast.
Ghana are a talented side, but the hosts have to be opposed. Their price is simply too skinny (best at 4s with Hills) for their FIFA ranking. Although it is true that they have not had the chance to climb the FIFA ranking scale due to lack of fixtures, qualifying automatically, their squad simply doesn't look as strong as others around them.
Crucially however, their first knock-out game (they should coast to victory in their own group) comes against the runners up in Group 'B'. Group 'B' has already acquired the popular 'group of death' moniker, and Ghana are guaranteed to face a tough fixture, and they may be caught under cooked. So, they have to be opposed.
The jewel of the Ivory Coast's squad is undoubtedly Chelsea's Didier Drogba, but the devastating hitman looks too brittle at the moment to last a physically demanding tournament. The Elephants can boast a stunning squad though - with Eboue, Toure, Kalou and Barcalona's rising star Yaya Toure - so cannot be easilly passed over.
Cameroon initially look a very interesting prospect, with what looks like a comfortable route into the semis. Eto'o is sure to have an impressive tournament, but it remains to be been how much quality resides in his backroom staff. One man does not a team make.
Nigera are currently the highest ranking team in FIFA's ratings entering the tournament, yet are fourth favourites. They have the most recognisable squad - Yakubu, Kanu, Utaka, Martins, Mikel, Etuhu and Yobo - to premiership viewers, and breezed through qualification.
So why are the super eagles available at 7s with Coral? Firstly, they have to navigate the group of death (Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Mali and Benin), and their manager. Ex-Scottish boss Bertie Vogts is currently in the midst of a vicious slanging match that threatens to undermine his star studded squad. It's also worth remembering the impact that he had with Scotland, that they improved considerably after he left.
But betting is all about value, and Nigeria should be around the same mark as the Ivory Coast, not nearly double the price. They will have two challenging games before the knockout stages where they can hit their stride. Spicing up group 'B' are Mali. Mali are ‘live’ outsiders, and pose a very serious threat to the big two in their group. Boasting an array of La Liga stars, and the reborn Kanoute, with their traditionally strong defense - they may be the one to spring a surprise.
Their route to the final is not as difficult as might be initially expected. First they have to either overcome Ivory Coast or Nigeria, but if they do, then they would be in the vein of form to take advantage of Ghana - who might become lazy from playing in a group too easy.
They would enjoy the easier semi-final, probably meeting able but ultimately limited side Senegal (who look reasonably priced at 12s) en route to the final. Ladbrokes have suck their neck out by offering 20/1 about Mali, and their each way terms are favourable (1/2 odds for first two).
Blackburn look reasonable value at 1.75 to beat a Middlesbrough side that pull themselves together for the big games (taking four points from Liverpool and Arsenal already this season), but struggle to motivate themselves for weaker opposition. Blackburn are not a team you can afford to underestimate.
Everton are a team on form, and although it cannot last forever, we should still take our opportunities to back the blues. Wigan have improved under Bruce, and this is a tough fixture for the toffees - but expect them to prevail at odds of 2.4.
Completing the treble are Man City. Stunning at home this season, and with Elano surely back to match fitness now, they can start to assert themselves again with the swagger that they have had for much of the season. They should be closer to 1.8, not trading about the 2.1 level.
A far more sound betting opportunity can be found in the 2.30 however. Dropping back in trip gives Silverburn no more excuses, and he should win. Take anything odds against, as he could prove to be a cut above even the best of these. With the Nichols & Thomas combination, which proved so successful last year, reunited, there's no excuse not to make this bet a big one.
On Saturday Portsmouth are at home to Derby. It seems like an inevitable win for a solid Portsmouth team against relegation favourites Derby. However, changes this January may not make it such a foregone conclusion. The Derby squad has been bolstered by Paul Jewell's dealings in the transfer window; on the other hand the Portsmouth squad has been depleted this month because of the African Cup of Nations. I don't think Derby have any hope of climbing out of the relegation zone, but with a few new players they may be able to get a few surprise results. They have every chance of pulling off a shock of some sort at Fratton Park.
Portsmouth are struggling enormously at Fratton Park, having scored just one goal in the last six games there. They have also drawn six of their ten games at home this season. I see this one going that way and predict a draw (4.5 on Betfair)
I think when Liverpool face Aston Villa on Monday night it is also likely to be a stalemate. They have drawn half of their home games this year and Villa have drawn half of those they have played away. Anfield's image as a tough place to travel to seems to have come undone this season. Liverpool are still priced as one of the big four despite only being part of it on goal difference. They have the same number of points as Aston Villa this season and yet inexplicably are worse than evens in this one. This is especially strange when we consider that Villa have managed draws with the likes of Chelsea over Christmas.
I recommend backing the draw at 4.5 for this Monday night match.
If the racing goes ahead this weekend then it will offer some interesting match-ups. The 1:10 at Ascot provides a few potential winners. The going will be heavy if it can be run on at all and this will be the key factor in all of the weekend's races. Lough Derg and Penzance carry 20lbs and 17lbs more than their nearest rivals respectively. I don't think either of these horses have enough quality to overcome these weights under such testing conditions.
Hoh Viss has won three of his seven runs on heavy ground (no other horse has won in these conditions). Blinkers seemed to suit him last time, and got him back to winning ways. Hoh Viss has also won both races he has run over this going and distance but he has been risen 5lbs after his win last time out. Princelet has also been risen 5lbs for coming a close 2nd to Nycteos on Boxing Day. Peacock is another horse that has a good chance, based on his performance last week. But he's unlucky to be 5lbs heavier based on what he may have done in that race had Khasab's fall not hindered him.
In the Victor Chandler Chase at 1:45 Twist Magic looks the one to beat. He would be 14lbs worse off if this were a handicap and, unfortunately, this is reflected in the prices. He hasn't won on heavy going, but looks like a versatile horse that should cope. Even if the ground doesn't suit him he should be able to see off his opponents on Saturday. He won the Tingle Creek against horses of far greater quality. That day he finished nine and twenty-six lengths ahead of Hoo La Baloo and Ashley Brook respectively. There is no reason to suppose that either of them can turn that around. Ashley Brook has had some good runs on heavy but looks a different horse since his injury.
Mansony looks the only serious threat to Twist Magic and is believed to go better right-handed. Yet it cannot be ignored that going right handed against The Listener in December he finished 19 lengths behind him. Mansony definitely has the measure of Schindlers Hunt but I do not think he will be able to match Twist Magic without the weight advantage he would have in a handicap.
Unfortunately Haydock has been cancelled, I'll be posting a new nap asap.
My nap is Refinement in the 2.55 at Ascot.
Available at 6.4 on betfair, have 2pts win on it.
Well done on the draw last night!
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