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Betting Week Four; Keegan not so Wise

George Taylor
Taylor's tips returned to form last week, including a 9/2 winner
Saturday, 2nd February 2008
This weekend has a feast of sporting action, full cards at Sandown and Doncaster, a complete list of Premiership fixtures, along with the Superbowl, and the start of the Six Nations. This column posted a profit of 25pts last week - a whopping £250 return at a tenner a point. But our tipsters have not been resting on their laurels, and have found all the value for this weekend.

Taylor's Tips

  • 0.5pts Giants + 6.5 (3 on Betfair)
  • 1pt Giants + 12.5 (1.95 on Betfair)
  • 1pt ew Calatagan (40s on Betfair) NAP
  • 2pt lay Newcastle (2.1 on Betfair)
  • 2pt win Everton (3.35 on Betfair)

It's Superbowl time! One of the finest spectacles in all sport is this Sunday, and cannot be missed by anyone with even the weakest knowledge of the unique rules.

Unfortunately however, the betting opportunities are very limited, as only big hitters can make the most of the generous looking 1.23 on offer about the New England Patriots (though 50k is available down to 1.2 if you are tempted to stake your entire loan).

If you're looking for an interest then you could do a lot worse than backing the Giants on the handicaps. The Pats had one of their toughest games of their perfect season (winning 38 - 35) when meeting the Giants, and the New Yorkers have a good chance of keeping this one tight.

Injuries have gone the way of the Pats however, as QB Tom Brady came through training whilst Giants receiver Plaxico Burress did not. So keep stakes low, and if things are really that bad, appreciate that we may be watching the greatest NFL team ever in action.

But when it comes to making money, you cannot afford to miss opportunities like those presented in Doncaster's 3.00. Often when a horse like Calatagan shows good form in bottomless ground, it is assumed they need it to win. But the selection has proved himself over the conditions he will face today, and is massively over priced at 20/1. The horse has all the credentials of those at the head of the market, and the current price available on Betfair (40s) cannot be missed.

As a Leeds fan I followed Dennis Wise's switch to Newcastle very closely, and I can't help but feel that they are in serious trouble. Keegan's record is abysmal, it was players like Beardsley and Asprilla who gave Newcastle their 'glory years', not the Double K. Keegan hasn't even managed to put together a honeymoon period for the hapless Geordies.

Having explored all the various markets on Betfair for ways to oppose the Magpies, there simply isn't the liquidity around to oppose them in the minor markets. So instead I'll be opposing Newcastle on a match to match basis, starting with a lay at home to Middlesbrough.

There's plenty of money waiting to lay Newcastle so it won't be easy to get matched, but a bet at 2.1 should be taken soon enough.

On a more positive note, Everton are in rich form, and even without their African absentees have a good chance of taking advantage of Blackburn's poor home form. Take the 3.35 available on Betfair.

Sneer's Selections

Sneer
After tipping a 25/1 winner, and correctly predicting the draw/liverpool double result Sneer is in flying form

  • 2pts France to win the six nations (2.82 on Betfair)
  • 3pts Manchester United to beat Tottenham (10/11 with paddypower.com)
  • 0.5pts Fulham/Villa double result (29 on Betfair)
  • 1pt Vodka Bleu to win the 2:35 at Sandown (5.4 on Betfair)
  • 2pts Hobbs Hill to win the 3:10 at Sandown (2.4 on Betfair) NAP

The Six Nations starts today, and any potential winner has to hit form from the opening whistle. That is why the victors of the opening games this weekend could go on to be the champions. Also, I don't think we need look beyond the front two in the betting, despite it looking like being a very open tournament.

England are favourites to beat Wales on Saturday, but there is always enough passion for an upset. A loss in the first game could be an insurmountable psychological obstacle, and this is a very real danger for England.

France have a far easier game against Scotland to kick start their campaign. England beat France in the World Cup, but that upset hasn’t fooled the bookmakers, who have instilled France as slight favourites for the tournament. I believe France will be eager for revenge against England this time around and I don’t think England’s chances will be helped by Ashton’s new tactics. The England coach defended his team’s negative approach in the World Cup and vows to allow his team to express themselves more. I think England should stick to what they know and do best. A new gameplan may be enough to oppose the World Cup finalists.

Manchester United travel to White Hart Lane at the weekend and I expect them to return to Manchester with three points. Although Tottenham are achieving better form under Juande Ramos now, they do not appear to be able to match teams at the top of the Premiership (aside from a weakened Arsenal in the Carling Cup).

They were unable to score against Everton on Wednesday and the league leaders will be an entirely different proposition. Manchester United and particularly Ronaldo are in incredible form at the moment. The champions have won nine out of their last ten Premier League games, including a tricky away fixture at Liverpool. Ronaldo has scored thirteen goals in his last nine matches and shows no signs of slowing. Their defence has been in good form too, having conceded just four goals in those nine games. At 10/11 they are a good price to pick up another win.

I expect Aston Villa to beat Fulham but think for the price the double result may represent much greater value. I predict a Fulham/Villa double result. By no means is this a sure bet; it’s a money-spinner with good reasons to support it. The most likely way for this to come about is for Fulham to go in 1-0 up and end up throwing the advantage away. Fulham have only scored in the first half in three of their last ten Premiership games as their firepower appears to have dried up. Yet, keeping goals out in the first half is something they have succeeded in doing in 18 of their Premiership games. When we compare this to Birmingham and Newcastle who have achieved this just twelve and thirteen times this season, it seems Fulham have a knack for keeping teams quiet for the first forty-five minutes. Fulham have acquired a reputation for throwing the lead away this season, yet luckily the odds do not reflect this.

The 2:35 at Sandown will go to Vodka Bleu. After being outside the first ten in three handicap chases, the introduction of blinkers has really got Vodka Bleu back on track. He has now won his last two races. He likes the distance and the going, having only been out of the front three once in six attempts on soft ground.

Warne’s Way is in with a chance having been raised just 2lbs after a close 2nd to Lough Derg. The Very Man beat Ballyfitz by a couple of lengths earlier this month and they have been risen 11 and 5lbs respectively for that race, which may just hold them back here. The Tother One is a very well fancied horse, but a 23lb rise for four straight wins may take a race to get used to. Vodka Bleu on the other hand is technically 23lb better off going over hurdles again and if the blinkers continue to work for him I could see him taking this one.

In the 3:10 I expect Hobbs Hill to win his 5th race on the trot. He beat Silverburn by 5 lengths and Lead On by 22 lengths in November with 7lb more on his back. In December he finished 22 lengths ahead of Keepthedreamalive and he hasn’t been raised for his most recent 8 length win. Wee Robbie won a race against impressive company a fortnight ago , yet it is hard to read too much into that as Mahogany Blaze and Marodima tried too hard to force the pace early on.

Market Man has possibly the best form among this company but his 784 day absence is too long to expect his best form. Silverburn could be a threat back over 2 ½ miles but seems unlikely to reverse November’s form. Lead On has found some better form since being almost a distance away from Hobbs Hill in December but only one of those was a class one contest and I fancy the favourite to win here.

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#1 George Taylor
Mon, 4th Feb 2008 7:12pm

Another cracking week - with the Giants winning the superbowl they obviously covered both handicaps, France look the only team with any talent in the 6 nations, and week one of opposing Newcastle got off to a superb start! On the racing front Hobbs Hill was withdrawn before the race, and longshot Calatagan fell when going strong at the second last.

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