Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
I look to Sunday for the good value bets in domestic football this weekend. First up is the match between Aston Villa and Reading at 12:30. The Villains will see this as a crucial chance to pick up three points in their push for Europe, because going to the Emirates Stadium next week could prove a fruitless task. Reading have conceded 19 goals at home this season, which is the fourth worst record in the top flight this season. On top of this, Aston Villa have scored 24 goals on the road this season, which is the best record in the Premiership. Reading's defence could be shored up by the return of Andre Bikey and Ivar Ingimarsson but I don't think these defenders are good enough to keep out the potent Aston Villa attack. Which could be strengthened further if Agbonlahor overcomes his hamstring injury in time.
Last time out, Aston Villa thumped the under-performing Magpies 4-1 and I expect them to pick up another comfortable win here against an underperforming side. Reading have failed to score in their last five matches and, perhaps more worryingly, in their last four at home. Aston Villa have a leaky defence (their last clean sheet was back in November) so I can see Reading at least scoring today. I am sure Villa will score more though. I think it is also worth backing Aston Villa to win 3-1 at 24.0 on Betfair. That was the score when these teams met at Villa Park on January 12th and I think it could be again.
Another fixture on January 12th that could prove crucial to this weekend's action was between Chelsea and Tottenham. Unlike the match between Aston Villa and Reading I do not expect Chelsea's 2-0 win to be repeated. Since that match the fortunes of the two sides have been quite different. There is no doubting that Chelsea are the better side but I think their slight dip in form will result in a draw in the 90 minutes on Sunday. Unlike the FA Cup final which has seen two draws in the last three years, the Carling Cup has been decided inside 90 minutes in its last seven finals. We are due a dull draw in this cup final and these two evenly matched teams could provide it.
This is the best chance at a route into Europe next season for Tottenham. They are twelve points behind the automatic Uefa cup qualifying spots and there is a long way to go to win the trophy this year. Chelsea's motives for victory will simply be that Avram Grant will want concrete proof that he is an able successor to Mourinho. Despite the decline in the trophy's status it is still a way into europe for Spurs and a way to get any last critics off Avram's back.
Tottenham are in a good run of form now and it looks like Ramos' fight on the players flab has begun to pay off. Their demolition of Arsenal in the semi-final was an overdue victory over their rivals and they will be in high spirits having gotten through to the last 16 in the Uefa Cup. Chelsea have won just one in their last four (vs. Huddersfield) and have only scored twice in two of their last eight games. That lack of firepower upfront is what worries against a Tottenham defence strengthened by the arrival of Woodgate and Hutton. I expect Chelsea to take the cup in the end but I do not think either side will win it in 90 minutes.
The 3:15 at Kempton offers the biggest Handicap race of the weekend. I think I can find some good value bets in this one as I find it hard to fancy the favourite Gungadu at his price or 2nd favourite Ungaro at any price! If Gungadu wins he would be the shortest-priced winner for seven years. He was a fairly disappointing 6th in the Welsh National but did beat Burntoakboy at Sandown earlier this month. That form could be reversed as Burntoakboy has an extra 1lb against Gungadu and a more experienced jockey. The ground is not as soft here and the extra weight that Gungadu carries may not slow him down as much. Ruby Walsh takes the reins over from Sam Thomas on Gungadu as well. Even if there is a form reversal with the favourite it doesn't guarantee victory for Burntoakboy,especially as he hasn't won in eleven attempts over this distance.
I can't make a case for 2nd favourite Ungaro in this three mile chase. He didn't come close to Denman in March or Aces Four in April. On his seasonal reappearance he was last in a three horse race and then came sixth when trying to capitalise on his lower mark over hurdles. He lacked the guts to beat An Accordion last time out and has been raised to a higher weight than when losing to Turko by 21 lengths in December. Steer well clear. In this race last year, Simon won by 10 lengths. Since then, he was unlucky to fall in the National with every chance of winning. We can discount his first run of the season, as he never performs well fresh. He only just lost in December and then lost his rider when in with a great shout in January. I think Simon is due a win and having been dropped a pound after his last race may have underestimated him a bit. Don't worry about his weight as, unlike many big chases, six out of nine winners have carried over 11 stone 5lbs.
Other race trends show that Philip Hobbs has trained three winners in the last nine years and Richard Johnson has ridden four out of nine. Dream Alliance is trained by Hobbs and ridden by Johnson. He was 2nd to Denman in the Hennessy but then had to pull up in the Welsh National which may have been a bit far for him. He was unlucky to unseat his rider when four lengths clear last time. He is definitely worth a bet here. Another each way chance here is Palarshan. He wears new headgear here and seems to go well fresh. After a two year lay-off he came 2nd in the Racing Post Plate at Cheltenham. Eight months later, he was 4th in the paddypower despite being hampered by the fall of Granit Jack. A 70 day break before this race may help him today. Three years ago he was sixth in this race and is now 2lbs lower despite good form since then. Richard Johnson prefers to ride Dream Alliance today but Palarshan is 9lbs lighter. I really cannot pick between them so can only recommend having a small bet on each to be placed. It may not seem all that cost-effective but if only one places you will cover your losses and last time I picked two horses to be placed, I was right both times.
A profit at the weekend, and a profit Midweek, Taylor is hitting form now, and has some straightfoward value for you this Saturday. Manchester United face Newcastle, and there's some quality racing at Kempton to get us started. Feel free to post any bets you fancy this weekend, we're always up for a bit of competition!
The first at Kempton offers us up the first value of the day, all the fuss seems to be about Numide, but it may pay to pass over the jolly in favour for the Nicky Henderson trained Stellino. Both are fancied for bigger and better things, but Stellino has shown much more on his first race over obstacles. Numide may go on to be brilliant, he's done little wrong so far, but his price is artificially short.
Our first two weeks opposing Newcastle have paid brilliantly, and things aren't getting any easier for them anytime soon. Manchester United sealed a good result in Lyon midweek, despite not playing at their best. So 1.5 about them winning away looks very skinny. They have not lost consecutive league games for over 100 fixtures though, and with Arsenal currently setting the pace Fergie is certain to come home with all three points.
Supplement the outright selection with a few bets to back up our fears. Ronaldo and co can't be guaranteed on to be at their best, so back under 2.5 goals, and the Man U clean sheet. Fergie will make sure they come home with at least a point, and the clean sheet is the easiest way to do so. The Red Devils made Arsenal look impotent, so imagine what they could do to the Magpies.
Good luck with all your bets!
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