Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
Sned's Good Things
As a punter, I thoroughly believe that it's worth doing your homework, not only to give yourself more of a chance with your betting but it also avoids you looking like a bit of a plank when arguing football.
My friend has backed Russia to win Group D but when arguing his case, the only player he knew was the skipper Arshavin of whom he based his argument around. Sadly for him, Arshavin is suspended for the first two matches of the tournament. This makes Russia conceding the most in the tournament an appealing bet, as although Arshavin is an attacker, he is so influential to Russia that they may not cope without him.
Even if Russia aren’t totally reliant on him and go through, they would face a likely quarter-final against Italy, France or Holland who all have the ability to tonk the Russians, except for perhaps the more defensively minded Italians.
Now for a brief history lesson; the winner of the Golden Boot has not been from the winning nation for the last three tournaments and he has always been the main striker of his team. My selections are both their country’s main striker (Petric must fill Eduardo's boots) and have a decent goal scoring pedigree.
To win at each way, it is likely that the two will need at least four goals, but Petric should be able to find the onion bag at least a few times against the weak Austrians and Poles whilst lanky forward Ibrahimovic should be backed to make the net bulge against Greece and Russia.
More history now; it appears that the last three winners have all come from perceived groups of death with Greece surviving a group with Portugal, Spain and Russia at the last championships.
This years undoubted group of death is Group C with Italy, Holland and France slugging it out. The belief is that if you survive the big games early, your squad already has the big match attitude before the knockout rounds. The Germans, for instance, may not get as up for Poland and Austria and may not be in the right mind set when the big games come.
I’ve decided to back France as Ribery and Benzema are in fine form as well as the fact that the Italians have lost captain Cannavaro, an integral part of their defensively minded team. The Germans easyish path to the final cannot be ignored however and the brave amongst may wish to back Holland meeting them in the final as the Dutch have the fire power to trouble any team any on their day can be as good as anyone.
Seano's Snaps
Written by Sean Martin
After a better week last week and my reputation regained I have a few controversial selections for Euro 2008. Firstly for your outright bet look no further than world cup winners Italy at 7.8. Italy have a proven ability to win big tournaments and get the job done and they have an experienced side that holds under pressure.
Germany are their main threat as tournament favourites, but 4.9 is no value in a long tournament with some talented teams. Spain are notorious underperformers; Portugal lack a genuine striker and France stumbled through the qualifying stages. Italy switched to a 4-5-1 towards the end of their qualifying campaign which proved successful and their organised defensive system should replicate the fashion of Greece’s 2004 victory.
Spain are the Mark Ramprakash of the football world as they have such great potential but never fulfil it at the top stage. They have a team full of world class players but can’t seem to keep their cool past the quarter finals of World Cups and European Championships. Consequently it’s a good bet to take advantage of backers’ over-confidence and lay them to reach the final at 4.4.
On the road to Euro 2008 France have had numerous problems with injuries and mercurial form in the qualifiers. They lost to Scotland twice as the 1998 World Cup Winners seem to be ready to hang up their boots. Vieira, Ribery and Henry are also injury doubts for their opening fixture in the ‘Group of Death’ and I think they could be shocked by outsiders Romania or the talented Dutch. At 1.67 to qualify from group C I think they are far too short and worth a definite lay.
Young starlet Mario Gomez was 2nd top scorer in the Bundesliga this year with 18 goals for Stuttgart and is being touted as the next Muller. Germany have a great chance of going all the way to the final giving the youngster plenty of games to score in. Their group is one of the easier of the four with Austria, Croatia and Poland meaning the Germans may bag a few goals early on in the tournament. At 18 he has to be a great price as backers are myopically lumping on Ronaldo and Torres. Finally the first games of tournaments are normally tepid affairs as the occasion seems to stunt free flowing football. With two reasonably even matched sides in Switzerland and Czech Republic I think 2.7 for under 1.5 goals is good value.
With the bets that run over the whole tournament be vigilant on the in running markets and seek to lay back to secure your position. There will be plenty of liquidity in every market, so if you can nick a few points to nothing trade your position and take the risk out of your exposure and sit back, relax and enjoy the tournament.
Picking winners of horse races can sometimes involve the application of simple logic, sometimes it takes blind faith, and most times, it requires a tasty dollop of luck. We’ll need all three if we’re to find the winner of the Derby.
Let’s start with the logic.
A horse does not come from nowhere to win the Derby. The following four races, the 2,000 guineas (1), the Dee Stakes (2), Dante (3) and the Derrinstown Stud (3) have given us the previous nine winners and it makes sense to focus our attentions on the winners of those events. Only winners of the Dee, Dante and Derrinstown have succeeded at Epsom, whereas placed horses in the English 2,000 guineas have managed the feat.
Suddenly, a remarkably open race is narrowed down to a handful of runners. Tartan Bearer won the Dante, Casual Conquest took the Derrinstown Stud in good style, Tajaaweed shaped well when winning the Dee Stakes, while from those placed in the 2,000 Guineas only New Approach takes his chance here.
No winner in the last ten years raced more than five times before Epsom, New Approach has already seen the race track seven times. Four favourites have won in nine attempts, while the biggest price winner this time started at 7/1, Tajaaweed is currently trading at 12/1.
Tartan Bearer has a superb profile, especially given Stoute’s fine record in the race. Weld is less renowned for producing Derby winners, but with the last three winners of the event being trained by Chapple-Hyam, Tregoning and Bell the Derby is clearly not a closed shop.
However, Tartan Bearer was not an authoritative winner of the Dante. It might prove to be the best form on offer, and the Tartan Bearer & Frozen Fire exacta might be worth a pop, but I just cannot believe that his run had the same magic quality that Authorized and Motivator displayed. Also, even though he is champion jockey elect, Moore seemed to struggle with the contours of Epsom yesterday, and unfortunately it seems that we cannot bank on him to deliver a perfect run.
Casual Conquest however, stormed to victory in what looked a very solid trial. They went a decent pace, against well regarded rivals, and he murdered them – yet still giving the impression that he is entitled to improve a good deal. Again, there are jockeyship doubts. Pat Smullen has never won at Epsom, but he has only had eight attempts.
Now for the faith.
The colt is massive. The master of Epsom, Lester Piggott, said the first thing a Derby winner requires is balance. There is no way of knowing if the colt will thrive, and it will have to, on the famous undulations.
And the luck…
The horse has only run twice. Will it be able to cope with the crowd? Will the race pan out to suit the colt? Will he be able to find the necessary improvement? Will he have the speed? Will he stay? We’ll only know the answer to these questions too late, all I can tell you now, is that it’s worth a punt at 5/1 to find out if he can.
If you’re looking for one at a bigger price to back each way then Tajaaweed could give you a run for your money, while at even bigger odds Rio De La Plata might have been unfairly disregarded by many.
Selections
Alternatives
France won the WC in 98 not 02.
I don't mean to be pedantic but I think its forte, not fortay...from the Latin meaning strength, as in one's strengths...
Apologies, Sneddon is a maverick
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