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Betting week 9; Ruud to ignore Van the man

sned 1
The (joint) Yorker Sports Journalist of the year
Saturday, 21st June 2008
Betting is brilliant. There is no other way to describe it. The Turkey v Croatia match was one of the more boring games you're likely to see yet was enthralling in normal time due to a wager on Croatia, and was amazing in extra time due to money on the draw.

I thought my money had all gone, but that’s football, you just can’t predict what will happen next. However, it is my duty to predict what will happen in football and the world of sport, so here we go for another week.

Sned's Good Things

  • 1pt win, New Zealand (-30) to beat England, Saturday 8:35am, at 2-1 (Ladbrokes)
  • 1pt win, Bopara to top score in England's innings, Saturday, at 5-1 (Ladbrokes)
  • 1pt win, Stoner to win British Moto GP, Sunday, at 15-8 (Ladbrokes)
  • 1pt win, over 2.5 goals, Holland v Russia, Saturday 7:45pm, at 5-6 (Ladbrokes)
  • 1pt win, draw, Italy v Spain, Sunday 7:45pm, at 7-4 (Ladbrokes)

The first action of the weekend sees England’s rugby union boys play their second test in New Zealand. It seems that four of the England team have been playing a different variety of game during the week and brought a woman back to their hotel.

Allegations of rape and sexual assault have been banded about and this can’t help an already depleted and quite frankly poor England team. I am picking New Zealand to win after giving England a 30 point start; this is a large margin but I can’t see England producing anything more than last week, especially after their turbulent week.

Less drama surrounds English cricket with the authorities changing or making new rules by the day. If there is a problem, the ICC solve it on an almost nightly basis. The 30 minute break between innings was far too long to be fair and hats off to the ICC for actively making cricket a more enjoyable sport.

They’re letting umpires use more common sense and I’m going to use mine and back Ravi Bopara to top score in the England innings. He hasn’t had a start in his previous two outings but he is a player who only needs to hit a couple of fours to feel back in nick. He hit 201 not out in a one day match at Leicestershire only a few weeks ago so could easily score big if he gets a start.

A sport which I find much more entertaining than F1 is Moto GP and I am amazed that more people don’t know who James Toseland is. An image that may jog your memory is Tosealnd playing the piano at the Sports Personality of the Year Awards. This man is a professional motor cyclist, fronts a band, can play the piano amazingly and has what many call ‘the looks’.

His time will come in Moto GP but for the moment, three men are dominating the scene. The legendary Valentino Rossi, Casy Stoner and Daniel Pedrosa. In today’s practice session, Stoner recorded the fastest time; add to this hid victory at Donnington last year and I think you’ll find that he’s value at 15-8 for the win.

If I was to be on A Question of Sport, in the home and away round, my home question would most certainly be on football. I know I can talk a good game (whether or not I can play a good game is debatable) so all this football has been amazing as football is always there, so can always be talked about. Quite frankly this hasn’t helped my degree, but it has helped my wallet. My prediction of a Germany v Holland final isn’t looking too bad and will easily compensate for backing France if it comes off.

As I need the Dutch to go through to the final, I shall back them against Russia but the stand out bet is for there to be three or more goals in the game. Holland have looked so good that they look they can score every time they have the ball and with Arshavin back, Russia look good going forward. It shouldn’t be a game for the defences and I expect goals.

The last quarter final should be a tighter affair, mainly because Italy are playing. Italy won’t attack much and Spain will be terrified of going out of the tournament. A no thrills draw is on the cards.

Seano's Snaps

Written by Sean Martin

  • 2pts win, Nadal to win Wimbledon, at 3.5
  • 2pts win, Van Nistlerooy to score, Holland v Russia, Saturday 7:45pm, at 2.66
  • 1pt lay, Woods to win the Open, at 10.5
  • 1pt win, Scott to win PGA Championship, at 26
  • 1pt win, England to win the test series v South Africa, at 2.74
  • all prices from betfair

Before I wish you readers good-bye with your spade and bucket in hand for summer I wish to give you some profitable picks to pay for your alcohol abusive 18-30 trip on a Greek island. My main money maker this week has to be Nadal at 3.5 for Wimbledon.

Nadal was successful on this column last week at the Artois Championships and shall be again as he has finally reaches the potential to win on grass in the Men’s singles. He has improved his array of shots over the past year and his physical fitness is better than any other contender.

Federer has suffered from glandular fever and has been beaten by far lesser opponents meaning that this players will step on to the court knowing they could beat him whereas before they had mentally lost the game before it had begun.

In more immediate fixtures Holland take on Russia in the Euro 2008 Quarter Finals this weekend and expert finisher Ruud Van Nistelrooy is great value to score at 2.66. Russia managed clean sheets against Greece and Sweden however the two teams have weak strike forces. Against Spain they were ripped apart conceding four and expect goals again from a dangerous and pacey Dutch side. Van Nistelrooy is at the apex of the attacking line and will receive copious chances to score from the midfield; 2pts at 2.66 is great value.

In to the more long term efforts I start with a reasonably risky venture. Browsing Betfair I saw that people are still willing to back Tiger Woods for the Open which takes place in under a months time after he declared he is out for the season after upcoming knee surgery.

Despite the sublime nature of Tiger Woods’s mental determination, I cannot see how he would recover in one month from a potentially career ending injury which he wants to fully recover from. Consequently take advantage of the lay before sanity prevails and backers realise one cannot play golf in a hospital.

Lastly I am backing the resurgent England Test team to beat South Africa this summer. This is the true litmus test of England’s progression and I think their new bowling attack, coupled with Pietersen’s love of smashing South African bowling, will help this team realise their Test potential.

South Africa have been in good form recently, particularly playing well in the difficult conditions in an away tour of India, but the tour to England presents a challenge their batsmen struggle to deal with: a quick moving ball. The South African batsmen lack the required technique to play against world class quick swing bowling and Broad and the mercurial Anderson will undo them. Although Mackenzie’s Indian summer with the bat presents a new challenge to England from South Africa’s last tour here, I back England’s bowlers to remove him cheaply.

As usual fair punters, always look to trade your positions and remove your liability on the exchanges. Then I hope I can add a few extra pounds to the beer kitty for your BBQs this summer.

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