US open special: Bethpage is back and blacker then ever

Nap: Lay Woods at 3.05 and back him after round one

Despite his unprecedented dominance of the golfing world since 1997 Woods has won few tournaments as wire to wire leader. In the majority of his major wins, Tiger prefers to play conservatively in the first couple of rounds, knowing that a great round won’t win you the tournament but a bad one will most definitely lose it. Therefore it makes sense to lay Woods whilst he is a short price (which he normally is for majors) and back him once he has drifted out after the first round. I tried this tactic at the Memorial tournament laying him at 5/2 and backing him after round 1 at 8/1 which produced a tidy profit.

Woods is the standout favourite for this tournament, winner here in 2002 by three shots and off the back of a great win at the Memorial two weeks ago. The harder the course the greater likelihood Woods will prosper, but his trademark charges are always made on Saturday not Thursday. This bet requires judgement as to when you back Woods after the initial lay. I would look for a price of around 8/1 but you must bear in mind he won’t drift too far out in a market that is likely to back him too short. Ogilvy and Furyk will threaten but this bet is a great way to secure a money to nothing shot on the outstanding favourite. 3pt Lay

Seano’s Shouts:

Tim Clark 4/1 Each Way to be top South African (Skybet)

The little South African is famed for his consistency on hard golf courses with a proliferation of good finishes in majors in recent times. He lacks the X factor to actually win one but expect Clark to play well at Bethpage this week. He is a short hitter but is 6th in scrambling and 18th in putting on tour this year, vital attributes in keeping a card together at a US open. With Goosen and Els out of form 4/1 is top value and Skybet offer 2 places for the each way at a third of the odds as well. 1pt E/W

Steve Stricker 10/1 Each Way to be Top US w/o Woods

1st on the tour in scrambling and 8th in putting Stricker has got all the attributes to salvage the vital pars that will decide the leaderboard on Sunday. He finished 17th here in 2002 before he underwent his resurgence on the USPGA tour. With one win and six top tens this year Stricker is in fine fettle. Skybet offer 4 places on this each way. 1pt E/W

Mike Weir 9/4 to finish top 20

Weir is another with the necessary short game skills, 6th in putting and 15th in scrambling on tour this year. This Masters champion may not hit a long ball but his resilience in tough circumstances is widely revered. If you fancy an outside bet 130/1 outright with Betfair is reasonable but I feel 9/4 top 20 with Skybet should see a more likely return. 1pt Win

Outsider: Sell Angel Cabrera’s finishing position at 42

Cabrera’s Masters win was not unexpected from those who have watched golf closely for the past five years. ‘The Duck’ has always hit the ball miles but his double major wins have come from his fastidious work on his short game. I don’t know whether Cabrera can realistically challenge for consecutive majors but only the top players will produce on arguably the hardest course around on tour. This market is maximum make up 70 (max loss = 28 points) so ensure you limit your liabilities on this outside shout. Sell 1/5 of a point per unit.

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