Nick Wright previews this weekend's clash between York City Knights and Hull FC
Alex Reid looks at whether the once ever-present appearance of English clubs in the later stages of the Champions League is set to become a thing of the past
Craig Dobson looks at QPR's decision to sack Neil Warnock and replace him with Mark Hughes
James Tompkinson reviews an excellent pre-season victory for the York City Knights against Yorkshire rivals Leeds Rhinos
Currently +12.9pts
This is the fight to end all fights. The build up has been unbearable. The hype has been...well, a lot like every other fight. But something about this duel has caught the public's imagination, and the patriotic punt has put the bookies at risk of losing millions. Over £15 million to be precise (and that's just Hills).
But if you're here to make money, leave your loyalties at the door. Hatton is trading around 3/1 in America, but is a best 13/8 here. English firms have not traded a penny on Mayweather, all punters want to know is how much they can get on the Hitman.
All the money is on Hatton, yet he remains the outsider of the two. If the bookies were genuinely scared of a Hatton win, then the Mancunian would be trading as favourite by now. Some say money talks, but in betting only smart money talks. The bookies are happy to lay Hatton to massive exposures, like those never experienced in boxing before.
And it speaks volumes.
1.63 about Mayweather winning the fight should be snaffled as hungrily as turkey on Christmas day. Hatton will charge at Mayweather, but he will be a fool to think that the American will not be prepared. How many punches will Hatton have to take before he can get inside Mayweather's reach?
Mayweather's camp have scored a massive coup in ensuring the largest ring size possible, 24ft (Hatton's camp wanted 18ft). Why? well Hatton can charge all he wants, but if Mayweather has room to dance and move and bait and tempt and tease the Hitman, then the Englishman has no chance. Hatton has a terrible flaw in that he bruises, and worse, cuts, far too easilly. Mayweather packs one hell of a punch, proved by the fact he is world champion two levels heavier than what Hatton is used to. So Hatton can't afford to walk into that too many times, but it may be what he's forced to do given the conditions in Vegas.
Hatton is reported to have been exhausted by the relentless media shedule, but this is Mayweather's stock and trade. Ignore the rumours of bad hands (they've never stopped him before), ignore the rumour that he was knocked down in training (if anything it shows how seriously he is taking the fight). Ignore the doubts about his hunger, Mayweather "don't need no more dough", he's in this for the glory. And 1.63, he's a stonking bet.
But, we're British. Hatton is our boy. Mayweather, well he's a bit of a plonker isn't he? So if you want the case for the Hitman's finest hour, then you need do no more than read Bernard Hopkins' analysis for inspiration.
"I've never seen Ricky get tired. So I believe Mayweather's style of rolling and baiting, that's not going to work against Ricky.
"I don't think I've seen Floyd fight against anyone who throws rapid punches, with sting on them, coming at him top to bottom, from different angles.
"Mayweather is a slightly bigger puncher, but he has bad mitts, and when you have bad mitts, you're always thinking, 'if I punch this guy, I've got to go eight more rounds with a sore hand'.
"Can you fight like a hungry man when your refrigerator is full? Can you keep that fire lit? Because I'm telling you, when that fire's not lit, you can't train the same, you go through the motions, you can't think the same, spiritually you're not the same.
"And when it comes down to that cut on your eye in the eighth round, when you're tired and it's a ball-burner of a fight, you've got to reach within and fight like a hungry poor man instead of a rich famous man.
"That's going to be the biggest factor on Saturday night. Who's going to be able to suck it up, forget about all the medals they've won, all the belts, all the pound-for-pound accolades and the 'zeros' on their records?
"Who wants to cross the line and knock on the door of greatness? That's what we'll see Saturday."
The best way to back Hatton is to look for the spectacular. If you must have a patriotic punt then make it a memorable one, one which predicts what we all want to see. Back the Hitman to fly out of the blocks, rough the Yank up for two rounds, before going for the kill. Back Hatton to win in rounds 3, 4, 5 and 6.
When you bet regularly, it is sound advice to have systems. Ideas that you like, and implement. Sometimes you can stare and stare, predict, strategise till you can see a hint of value. Sometimes, it whacks you clean in the face. This weekend we have the latter, three home teams that are better than the teams that visit, all over priced. Back them individually, and have a punt on the multiple - it pays 7/1.
Villa to beat Portsmouth.
Boasting both manager and player of the month, Villa are on fire, but the same cannot be said of Portsmouth. Portsmouth's away figures look very impressive (5 - 1 - 2) but when you consider their last four away wins were at Birmingham, Wigan, Fulham, and an imploding Newcastle, then the gloss is somewhat muddied. Villa have only failed to win three home games so far this year, Arsenal, Man U, and Liverpool. Portsmouth present nothing like that thread, and Villa are stunning value at 2.1 to take all three here.
Blackburn to beat West Ham
West Ham escaped relegation by the skin of their teeth last year, and while they have improved, they don't have the class of Blackburn, reflected in the 7 point gulf between the sides. 1.86 is too big.
Bolton to beat Wigan
Bolton are a better team than Wigan, and in Anelka they boast class Wigan can only dream of. I agree with Sneer that this might not be a pretty one, but Bolton should not be odds against at home here.
The 2.05 at Sandown is an intriguing little race, with only one without a hope of success. Narrowing the field down to the three that have won this season, and so proving their fitness, we have favourite Moon Over Miami, Mahogany Blaze, and the selection Marodima. There is so little to split these horses on at this stage of their careers, so it just seems logical to take the one at the longest price. With Nicholls and sensation Sam Thomas in partnership again 3/1 should be taken, but the race will be very open, and there are very slight doubts concerning the ground, so keep stakes low.
Newcastle may be poor value because of the pressure on Sam Allardyce in his last game. The psychological boost of a point at home to Arsenal will have helped the players, but it may have fooled the punters. It was certainly not Arsenal’s best performance of the season and they were without Fabregas and Van Persie. Other teams may have been able to achieve this against an Arsenal without their two main attacking threats writes Adam Kynaston-Smith.
Newcastle scrapped for the point because their fans got behind them in a match they were not expected to get anything from. I don’t believe the fans will feel so positive if they are 0-0 with Birmingham at half-time. There are still serious problems with Newcastle’s form, as they recently got thrashed 3-0 by Liverpool at St. James’ Park and haven’t won in six.
A point against the Premiership leaders can’t paper over the cracks.
Birmingham on the other hand fully deserved the win against Tottenham last week. Larsson’s last minute screamer showed they are a side that will battle just as hard as Newcastle. If McLeish can get another performance like that out of his side I believe the spoils will be shared.
Gary Megson got a great result a fortnight ago when beating Manchester United and yet last week Bolton lost 4-0 to Liverpool. I believe their real ability lies somewhere in between these two scores. The match will surely not be the best advert for the beautiful game. But I expect no lack of passion as both teams will see this as a chance to take 3 points from their local relegation rivals. Wigan’s new manager was only able to get the Latic’s a draw against Manchester City.
Bruce’s men could have walked away with the win, had Titus Bramble been on the bench. Megson and Bruce will still be getting to grips with their new teams and I don’t think either will come out on top here.
If you want a little extra value for this match then try guessing the score. Scoring more than once in 90 minutes is something both sides have struggled to do in the Premiership this season. Bolton have not done so since 25 August and Wigan have only managed this feat once all season. Neither side has a particularly clinical attack or tight defence. Therefore I can’t see clean sheets or 6 goal thrillers being the order of the day. Since I already believe it will be a draw the score looks obvious.
As the good news filters through that all charged riders have been cleared of any charges, so emphatically that the judge ruled that they had no case to answer, we have no excuse not to get involved in today's Tingle Creek Chase.
Despite the removal of Kauto Star from the race, there are still four horses with every chance here. Without him the possibilities for the race are opened up. Voy Por Ustedes is the newly instilled favourite. The attention turns to him since his first run out for the season did not disgrace, yet by coming 2nd he is allowed to retain his official rating. This race is not a handicap of course, but it may affect what bets seem good value, if the official ratings are questionable. There are certainly no major question marks over Voy Por Ustedes. I just hope there may be a horse with just as likely a claim to this one.
Ashley Brook fell in his last two runs against Monet’s Garden and Voy Por Ustedes. He had every chance of beating Monet’s Garden at the Roan Chase, but would not have had enough left to finish ahead of Voy Por Ustedes in March. Ashley Brook likes to lead from the front, but this time I expect him to have more success. Before the falls, Ashley Brook had finished in the front two in 8 of his last 10 races and if he gets a clear round he is to be respected.
The stiff fences that Cheltenham and Aintree provide may have just been beyond his jumping ability and a return to more straightforward obstacles could see him land this. Unlike Ashley Brook, Monet’s garden is a flawless jumper. His form is also to be respected, having beaten Kauto Star in October. Monet’s Garden also lost to Voy Por Ustedes in the Arkle in 2006, yet on that day Voy Por Ustedes was still a novice receiving 5lb. He has surely improved since then however and Monet’s Garden may be unlikely to reverse that form.
The big query over Twist Magic is whether the ground will suit. It is important to remember that he could have won the Arkle chase in March under soft conditions, were it not for the infamous penultimate fence at Cheltenham. Twist Magic also benefits from having the man of the moment on board; Sam Thomas. A very tricky puzzle here and my preference is for Ashley Brook who may cope better with the simpler fences.
Denman's stunning destruction of the Hennessy last week boosted Sneer into a slight lead, as both tipsters lie in comfortable profit.
Today - Ashley Brook
Today - Marodima
Thanks to my nap Marodima I just scraped a +0.4pt profit, not bad considering it paid for the punts on the Hatton rounds, and the treble.
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