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It’s traditional to take a step back and relax come the end of the year, but as 2011 draws to a close the Republican presidential nomination candidates will find that their lives are only becoming more stressful.
With the first true test of the primary season coming in the shape of the Iowa caucus on January 3, there will be some in the field feeling that they may already be out of the race while others will anxiously be waiting to see if they have performed as well as they think. Saturday’s GOP debate in the key battleground of Iowa only served to emphasise the gulf that has already emerged between the candidates, who can now seemingly be divided into three categories.
The front-runners
Since Herman Cain fell from favour there have really, in the eyes of most commentators, only been two people in the race for the nomination. One, Mitt Romney, was in almost exactly the same position four years ago. The other, Newt Gingrich, was still in a period of political exile at that time.
The competition between these two has heated up in the last week. At Saturday’s debate Romney accused Gingrich of being out of touch with real economics due to his history as a career politician. Gingrich fired back that Romney had only not become a career politician due to his failure to defeat Teddy Kennedy to the Massachusetts Senate in 1994.
Predictably, when faced with something unexpected, Romney failed to respond entirely convincingly. His offer to bet Rick Perry $10,000 over something written in his book also made him seem a little out of touch with the financial reality of millions of Americans.
The middle pack
While Romney and Gingrich tried to land blows on each other, the rest tried to land blows on both of them. Rick Perry apparently thought he had let the cat out of the bag when he accused Gingrich of marital infidelity, and then everyone remembered that we all knew that already. The Texan still seemed to think he had done some pretty sterling work though, and proceeded through the rest of the debate struggling to hide the sort of Cheshire cat grin that has the unfortunate effect of only wanting to hate the bearer even more.
Meanwhile there is Tea Party favourite Michele Bachmann, who, incomprehensibly, is still in the race. She essentially accused “Newt Romney” (see what she did there?) of being the same person. Nobody seemed to care as both laughed off her accusations. She also spoke about her fights against President Obama. One can only assume that she is referring to her lame jibes at Obama that appear every month or so to a sea of indifference, although one or two Tea Partiers jump up and down wildly with applause in their living rooms.
Let us not forget about Ron Paul. Running for the third time, the 76 year-old self-styled Libertarian is, bizarrely enough, likely to become the most prominent threat to the front-runners going into Iowa. There is a reason Paul has had a political career lasting the best part of forty years. He is a calm operator and, amazingly considering most of the nominees, is actually enormously likeable. His views are not the mainstream even amongst Republican voters but he seems to be winning over plenty who previously supported the now departed Herman Cain. Watch this space.
The stragglers
A brief few words about the stragglers in this race seem fair, if unnecessary. Contrary to popular opinion, Rick Santorum does still exist. Entering into a cocoon of nothingness between debates is an entirely new debate strategy but the former Pennsylvania Senator is still there, desperately trying to make someone pay attention to him to little or no avail.
Meanwhile Jon Huntsman is still being plagued by the fact that he used to work for President Obama as the US Ambassador to China. From this side of the pond it seems incredible that nobody has pointed out that he is by far and away the most economically clued in of any of the candidates. Why he is still languishing away at the back is a mystery. Sadly it does not look like that will change anytime soon.
All that remains to be said now is, bring on January 3rd.
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