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A week on I am still not sure why I stayed up until 8.30am to watch the Iowa Caucus results unfold.
For all the excitement of the tense final result and the personal satisfaction gained from watching Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry fade into insignificance, the Iowa Caucus did what it quite often manages to do…it told us very little about the primary race at all.
Yes, for front-runner Mitt Romney, victory in Iowa was an important moment, but it was one that came as a bonus rather than a landmark. The former Massachusetts governor was, lest it be forgotten, not expected to triumph in this first test. He spent relatively little time campaigning in Iowa at all, preferring to focus his energies on states in which he had a clearer place high up in the polls, such as New Hampshire – the next state in the primary calendar.
In fact the only candidate who can realistically see Iowa as having been a landmark is ex-Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, whose second placed Iowa finish gained him twelve delegates to take through to the Republican convention, only one less than Romney gained from winning.
Santorum has risen from nowhere to become, in the eyes of many, the main challenger to Romney going into the rest of the primary campaign. About Santorum, I must confess, I was wrong. Before Christmas I derided him as still existing “Contrary to popular opinion”. When most commentators thought Santorum was being something of an invisible candidate, he was actually doing some good old-fashioned campaigning in the Iowa grassroots, a move which earned him his shockingly good performance in the Caucus.
His financial limitations may have forced him into this move, which mostly consisted of driving about in a truck persuading people who think getting rid of abortion is the most important issue in the US right now to vote, but it paid off spectacularly. He now goes into New Hampshire as the front-running ‘traditional conservative’ candidate, even though his chances of going the distance remain rather slim.
Of course, Santorum’s rise was largely enabled by the fact that the Romney campaign plastered former Newt Gingrich with so many negative ads that the former Speaker of the House was reduced to standing in the corner moaning about how unfair everything was.
In a way it is a shame that Newt’s Lazarus like comeback has faded so quickly…but then it is Newt Gingrich so perhaps his supporters should be grateful that somebody else messed up his White House bid before he managed to do it himself. Of course, he is still not entirely out of the race, but it is hard to see him coming back from here, especially if he fails to make the top four in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire is, it must be remembered, a very different state from Iowa. Here Mitt Romney is expected to romp to victory and Rick Santorum should count himself lucky if he makes the top three. In this state conservatism is more moderate.
The leading competition for Romney could well be the libertarian Ron Paul, who finished an impressive third in Iowa, and the dark horse Jon Huntsman, who did not campaign in Iowa but has been polling better and better in New Hampshire recently. Rick Perry is still campaigning, but most likely to no avail. As for Michele Bachmann…well, her run for the White House is officially over after her dismal showing in Iowa.
So New Hampshire may well be fascinating but, with Romney poised for a comfortable win, in all likelihood it will still tell us nothing about how the race will finish. There are still six candidates in the field, I suspect South Carolina on the 21st January will leave us with perhaps just three or four runners…and then we will really know something.
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