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Kim Jong-Un has been announced to the people of North Korea as their “Great successor.” State media hailed the comrade as the outstanding leader of our party, army and people.” However, this transition is far from certain, because despite the deceased Kim Jong Il’s plans, it is unclear whether he is currently able to lead and what role he will have in a new government.
The militaries of South Korea and Japan have been put on emergency alert, following the immediate demise of this leader. There are major concerns on the internal events of their neighbour and uncertainty on the leadership and future foreign policy questions are understandable.
The isolationist and reclusive state poses a real problem to regional security, considering its nuclear arsenal is now potentially up for grabs. Security is now a case of “preparing for the unexpected” in the words of Japan’s Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda.
The death of the “Dear Leader” and the threat of an untapped nuclear collection is a threat in itself. The immediate problem with the demise of Kim Jong-il is that regional stability hangs in the balance and the succession is far from certain.
But what lies behind these immediate fears and are they exaggerated?
There is the current argument that Jong-Un will be required to prove his credentials and mettle to the ruling elite sitting in the Central Committee of the Korean Worker’s Party. There is much to this that is certainly credible. It is well known that he was made a Daejang, the equivalent of a General in the United States. Interestingly, this came on 27 September 2010, a day ahead of a rare Party conference in Pyongyang, the capital. This conference named him the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and established him among the cream in the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party.
He studied Computer Science privately in Korea and from this it is not surprising that he has little to no military experience at all. Yet, he is now the Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army as of today, in fact (Monday 19th). On 10 October 2010 he attended the ruling Workers’ Party’s 65th anniversary celebration, which practically appointed him as the successor to his father. International press access was granted to the event, further indicating the importance of Kim Jong-Un’s new status. In this climate, it is possible that he may need to prove himself to ruling party and military figures, which represents the hard line in relation to the nuclear program.
To add fuel to this fire of concerns, it has been reported that he has a ruthless streak, which is imperative concerning the retaining of dictatorship in North Korea. Of course, this may be another form of propaganda to instil respect in a man who has inherited this Communist leadership.
Other reports claim that he has the intelligence and leadership skills. In fact, a first-hand relation, Kenji Fujimoto, Kim Jong il’s former personal chef, said he was favoured over his elder brothers and reasoned that he is “exactly like his father.” He certainly appears to be a reflection of his father and his eternal president of a grandfather, Kim Il-sung. This one phrase could be confirmation of some states’ worst fears. But, reporting of rumours should not ever be an accurate substitute for a lack of intelligence.
But let us examine the facts in the immediate environment. South Korea has placed all its government and military personnel on emergency alert, but said there were no “signs of any unusual North Korean troop movements”.
Why would there be an episode of fresh military action so soon after the leader’s death? What is reported little is the testing of missile fire prior to the announcement of his death. In that context, the proclamation must have been fairly frightening for its Asian neighbours.
But, this was a reflection of fear and weakness in an unstable time. It is a Cold War tactic of deterrence and the removal of an iron grip could invite both internal pressure and external intervention, which was a possibility today.
Reuters interviewed Zhu Feng, Professor of International Relations at Peking University and said that “the mechanism for transition was in place and working”, before adding “the issue of primary concern is not whether North Korea will maintain political stability, but rather the nature of the new political leadership and what policies it will pursue.”
North Korea is not in a position to wage war at its most critical time. There are doubts on the intentions of the military and whether they will support this young man who has been imposed on them. It is true that Kim Jong-Il has a reputation for dishing out promotions to the military. Within the KPA, between December 1991 and December 1995, nearly 800 high officers received promotions and preferential assignments. Many have risen to influential positions within the Korean Worker’s Party. These promotions continue today, simultaneous with the celebration of Kim il-sung’s birthday and the KPA anniversary celebrations every April. The loyalties of the military can, of course, be questioned from this, but if the method of buying them off worked before, then why not now? Especially, when an inexperienced and young leader has entered the scene.
Kim Jong-il went out of his way to promote his sister and her husband to important political and military posts, in an effort to entrench the Kim dynasty. It is possible that Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Chang Sung-taek will act as regent, as the new leader is currently not ready. This could indicate a continuance of policy and direction.
China has also reaffirmed its support to North Korea. It has promised to support Pyongyang as it enters into an uncertain transition. Chinese state television hailed him as a “close friend of China.” The Chinese leadership visited the embassy in Beijing to express their condolences, in an effort to rack up more support for the young Kim. With China’s support, it is hard to imagine the death of this Communist regime.
Why would China allow such an event to occur? In a world where Communist regimes have fallen to five and are slowly becoming extinct, it is hard to imagine China allowing the collapse of one of its real major allies. North Korea is both a “buffer and a burden” to China, but this burden is endured considering the nature of the alternative. A Communist neighbour is much better to China than a Western-backed and ideologically hostile one.
It would be naïve to think that this artefact of Stalinist dictatorship will just open up to increased pressure or even feel the necessity to strike its neighbours right now. Even if Kim wants to wage a military campaign, there are a number of veteran advisors around him that may persuade him not to. However, only time will tell.
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