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On April 11 Sudan is set to have its first democratic election in over 24 years. It will be the first one since President al-Bashir seized power in a military coup and the first since the civil war, which officially ended in 2005, after the deaths of up to two million civilians.
The National Election Commission said 84% of the eligible population, a grand total of 15 million people, have registered to vote and there was even a chance of a competitive election. Up until last Thursday the two major contenders al-Bashir of the National People’s Congress (NCP) and Yasir Arman of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) were set to have a close contest, with many analysts predicting a Presidential run-off after voting closed on the 13th April.
Of course, African politics is never quite that simple, and Sudan was not going to be the exception to the rule.
To begin with, neither side is without their demons. President al-Bashir, who is seeking to legitimise his rule, has a warrant out for his arrest from the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity, and his party are accused of supporting the Arab Janjaweed militia who have carried out murders and rapes in the Darfur region.
The SPLM is no innocent alternative either. They were formerly called the SPLA, as they were a ‘liberation army’ before they were became a ‘liberation movement’, and also stand accused of committing numerous war crimes, including torturing people in SPLA camps and forcefully recruiting child soldiers.
The election was never going to be a simple process, and last week when the SPLM and other key opposition parties decided to withdraw from the election, things got a lot more complicated.
Yasir Arman, the SPLM candidate withdrew from the presidential election last Thursday. He was supposed to be the candidate who could unite northern and southern voters, as though he was from a party whose support is concentrated in majority Christian southern, Sudan he is an Arab northerner. He withdrew from the presidential race after claiming that he, and other opposition candidates were restricted to certain areas of the country and that the NCP had attempted to rig the election after census irregularities.
There were also reports that the NCP had bribed tribal leaders, tortured opposition supporters and manipulated the media to serve their own interests. Many of the other major opposition parties followed his lead after they met to discuss boycotting the election, leaving only the Popular Congress Party (PCP) contesting the national presidency against the NCP. Similarities between these two parties extend beyond their acronyms, with the PCP also having a conservative and Islamist agenda. This of course does not offer the Sudanese population, especially the Christian south, a great deal of choice when it comes to casting their vote. The PCP is also unlikely to pose a significant threat to al-Bashir’s NCP, as they lack the widespread support enjoyed by the SPLM and Umma Pary, who have also decided to boycott the election.
The boycotts have left al-Bashir with a serious dilemma. Firstly international agencies and foreign election observers have tried to persuade him to postpone the election until problems among the major parties can be resolved. Bashir has responded by threatening to expel, and remove the fingers of, any foreigner who demands the delay of elections. A strong reaction, which reflects the dire situation he is caught up in.
He can continue with the election, which he is now sure to win easily, saving him from a trial at the ICC for a few more years. But this will not legitimise his power and will leave many of the sanctions against Sudan intact. Or he can succumb to pressure and postpone the election, rendering him weak and incapable of controlling the opposition, less than a year before the southern Sudanese are set to vote in a referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or to seek their own independent nation.
The boycotts have also given the conspiracy theorists plenty to talk about. The SPLM have only withdrawn from the nationwide presidential election, and the elections in the West Darfur region, but are continuing to fight the elections elsewhere, including the presidential elections in the South. This has led many people to believe that they pulled out to allow Bashir to win, after secretly agreeing that this would ensure that the independence referendum, which is much more important to their supporters, goes ahead next January.
This is a convincing theory, especially after al-Bashir expressed discontent that the SPLM were going to field a candidate against him, after his party decided against fielding one in the southern presidential elections. However, both sides have strenuously denied these allegations.
With the election just seven days away Sudan’s future hangs in the balance. Many fear post-election violence whatever the outcome, and many of Darfur’s 2.7 million inhabitants did not register, fearing that they would be signing their own expulsion papers for when the Janjaweed next decided to ‘cleanse’ their land. It was unlikely that al-Bashir was going to allow himself to lose, due to the indictment that he has hanging over him, but the elections promised at least some Sudanese people a clear say in the future of their country. Clearly this will be something they will have to wait until January 2011 for, although with Sudan’s track record, especially after the last week, no one will be expecting the January referendum or next week’s election to run smoothly or be drama-free.
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