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Military tension increasing on the Korean Peninsula

Korean Conflict
Monday, 29th November 2010
Written by Scott Chipolina

The 23rd of November 2010 saw arguably the fiercest example of military aggression on the Korean peninsula since the Korean War. North Korea made the decision to fire live shells into the South Korean island of Yeongpyong, harming civilians and military personnel indiscriminately. A bold move such as this opens up a multiplicity of questions to ask: is there any justification for North Korean actions? In what condition have the relations of North and South Korea been in leading up to the attack? Will South Korea retaliate? Finally, where does such a strong and potentially dangerous act such as this leave the greater powers of America and China?

A spokesman for the Korean Central News Agency of DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) had stated that North Korea 'took a decisive self-defence measure to cope with the enemy’s reckless military provocation of firing shells inside the territorial waters of the DPRK side around Yeongpyong Islet.' Despite these notions of self-defence, all major powers have been swift in condemning the actions of North Korea, not understanding in any way strong military retaliation being a proportional response to a form of apparent 'invasion of DPRK waters'. U.S. President Barack Obama has voiced his unwavering support for South Korea. However, a spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry was recorded on the Korean Central News Agency as seeing America's backing as lacking any substance, purely 'for being their ally, this is little short of feeding oil to the fire.'

Clearly, one can note the aggression in North Korea's position over the past few days, which begs the question, have the neighbours' relations been under strain in recent years? We don't really need to look too far back to remember an exchange of gunfire, albeit a harmless encounter, on the 29th of October, or the seizing of a South Korean fishing boat on the 29th of August - holding those aboard for little over a month. On a more extreme note, North Korea acted swiftly in torpedoing a South Korean ship, killing 46 on the 26th of March. This act was potentially a delayed response to the sinking of a North Korean ship on the 10th of November 2009. It is important to highlight that South Korea and President Lee Myung-bak are warning of decisive military retaliation if North Korean actions do not discontinue.

In an interview with Sky News on the 23rd of November, John Bolton, a once US ambassador to the UN, called for further sanctions to be placed on the North Koreans. However, in order for this response to have any substantial influence, the US must receive the backing of China, who are responsible for 90% of North Korea's subsidies. At this stage, the Chinese government has done little to take sides on the matter. Hong Lei, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry, claimed the country hopes 'all sides will act in a way which benefits peace.' This passiveness is acting as a stumbling block for South Korea, who desire to bring North Korea forward to the UN Security Council for punishment. However, without the support of the Chinese, such a decision will prove to be little more than futile bureaucratic attempt to achieve justice.

At this stage, the worry begins when one notes how South Korea, who are undoubtedly determined to punish their neighbours, realise how ill-advised any bureaucratic negotiation or sanction will be without the backing of China. Additionally, the Chinese seem far from abandoning their support of the Communist state of North Korea. This will make it extremely difficult for the UN, and most certainly the US, to persuade the Chinese to back South Korea, evidently the only way in which any serious inroads can be achieved. With tensions high in the peninsula, and an unwavering support for the South and North stemming from the head Western and Eastern superpowers, any military actions targeting the nuclear North will be potentially disastrous.

It seems that, aside from the intuitively unlikely result of all out war in the peninsula, obliging the intervention of American and Chinese allies, North Korea's actions will go unpunished, with little more than a sense of contempt embodied in insubstantial UN sanctions.

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