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On the 4th of February the Romanian President, Traian Basescu, announced that Romania will host US missile defense elements. This announcement was a surprise for most as Romania was not a known candidate for the US missile shield project, unlike Poland and the Czech Republic. Romania’s President announced that President Obama’s proposal for deploying missile defense elements had been accepted by the Supreme Defense Council (CSAT).
The decision to deploy anti-ballistic missile defense in Romania was taken after a reevaluation of Iran’s threat to Europe. In 2009 the Obama administration reassessed the gravity of the peril that Iran is posing and concluded that it is not as great as the US feared at first. The Bush administration overestimated Iran’s missile technology and feared that it would rapidly produce long-range ballistic missiles. Hence, it proposed a plan to install a radar in the Czech Republic until 2013 and 10 long range missile interceptors in Poland. The Obama administration’s plan is to address existing issues rather than to counter hypothetical ones. Moreover, this approach will change the dynamic of the US-Iran relations by introducing a desired level of uncertainty between the two countries.
For many Romanians the deployment of American missile defense elements in their country translates in US protection from Russia. Romanians strongly believe that the missile shield will prevent Russia from extending its influence in Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, Mr. Basescu’s statement came as an image-booster in an attempt to distract people from domestic problems and cast him as a positive figure in Romania’s foreign policies. Mr. Basescu is trying to take credit for the contribution to Romanian national security although the US had been approached through diplomatic channels as soon as the intention of the Bush administration to launch the missile defense was announced. At the time (starting 2002), the Social Democratic Party (PSD) was in power, Ion Iliescu was president and former Romanian ambassador to the US, Mircea Geoana, was foreign minister.
However, Romanians fear Russia’s reaction to their hosting of American missile defense elements. The Romanian Center of European Politics (CRPE) study, “How the missile defense protects us from what the Russians do not have and how it fails to protect us from what the Russians do have”, argues that the missile defense is not anti-Russian as it is a defense plan not an offense one. Furthermore, Russia cannot hold medium range missiles as this is prohibited through the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).
At first, Russia responded in a surprisingly positive diplomatic manner to Mr. Basescu’s news. However, General Makarov recently announced that Russia is not pleased with the expansion of the missile defense plan and that this view will be reflected in the talks for the renewal of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). President Obama and President Medvedev have pleaded for a reduction of nuclear arms to 1.500-1.675 in both countries. However, the treaty – which is 97% established - is bound to be affected by US’ installation of missile defense systems in Eastern Europe. The missile defense system might in principle be directed at Iran but Russia is not very pleased with the idea of having American ground based interceptors in Eastern Europe. Russia defines the former Soviet Space as its “near abroad”, hence any US intrusion in that space is not well received. Furthermore, the Russians do not approve of enhanced US sanctions against Iran, which the deployment of missile defense in Eastern Europe furthers.
Whether the deployment of US missile defense elements in Romania is good thing or not remains to be seen. Anca Visan, a retired Romanian diplomat who was involved in security policies throughout her career, shares her view on the impact of Romania hosting missile defense elements on foreign policy and on the benefits that Romania will gain out of this agreement.
Mrs. Visan what do you think of CSAT’s acceptance of the American proposal to deploy missile defense elements in Romania?
I believe the Council approved what this country has been asking the US for a long time – for Romania to be involved in the missile defense program. The actual approval is definitely not a surprise for anyone here. Basically, the good news was being asked.
Should the Romanian population be questioned through a Referendum if it wishes to host missile defense elements?
This is a decision that was taken legally by the Council ; a referendum is not required in this case. Also, it would probably take a long time for the public debate to actually mature in preparation of a referendum, as most people right now are very much concerned with their economic security and are happy to leave the political and military decisions on security to the President and the Government.
What impact do you think this decision will have on Romania’s relations with Russia?
It should not have any impact at all. But of course Russia is not happy, just as it was not happy in the case of NATO enlargement. Russia will always be unhappy with any sort of American influence and/or involvement anywhere this side of the former Iron Curtain. It’s not only a foreign policy stance, it has domestic reasons too. But maybe they are slightly less bothered by things related to missile defense happening here than, say, the Baltic countries or Poland.
Does the missile defense plan offer Romania higher bargaining power in international foreign policy debates? How will Romania benefit out of this agreement?
I don’t think it will make much difference in terms of leverage. It’s still an American system and it’s not Romania who’s actually protecting anybody. In terms of benefits, besides the obvious, this will generate some jobs, and hopefully will bring some funds for the Romanian defense forces.
Do you believe that the Iranian threat is the actual cause of installing a missile defense in Romania?
I certainly do not believe it’s Russia.
Is the missile defense project increasing Romania's exposure to a terrorist attack? Eastern Europe has not been seen as a likely terrorist attack target so far; will that change from now on?
There has been a lot of debate on this here, and the general consensus seems to be that, yes, we may be more exposed now. But security always entails costs that go beyond money.
Thank you very much for your time, Mrs. Visan!
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