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A swing of 5% away from Labour saw the Conservatives win the popular vote by over 2 million and secure 306 parliamentary seats. However, despite this net gain of 100 seats since the last elections they were still left 20 short of the 326 needed to secure a majority government.
Labour on the other hand made a net loss of 91 seats, successfully losing their majority and slipping to their worst electoral performance in decades.
The Lib Dems had a similarly disappointing night. Despite the huge sense of optimism surrounding their campaign in the wake of the first televised debate, they made only minimal headway on the popular vote and made a net loss of 5 seats. This included some arguably surprising and indeed high profile losses such as Evan Harris' and Lembit Opik's.
What Happens Now?
With the British public failing to elect a majority, leading to the first hung parliament since 1974, it’s now left to the parties to seek a resolution and form a government.
Despite what Nick Clegg called a “disappointing” night, the Lib Dems may very well factor heavily in the formation of the next government. With both parties already reaching out in the Lib Dem's direction, Clegg may very well prove to be the proverbial kingmaker after all. He stated this morning that, having won the most seats, the Conservatives may have the right to make the first attempt to form a government, but the future remains far from certain.
David Cameron stated yesterday that Labour had “lost their mandate to govern” and today reached out with an “open and comprehensive” offer to the Lib Dems to join the Tories to form a “stable government” for the benefit of the “national interest”. Meanwhile Gordon Brown said that he respected Clegg’s decision to talk first to the Conservatives, but that he would be open to talks as well, should those between the Tories and Lib Dems “come to nothing”.
Clegg now faces a very tough decision. A Con-Lib coalition is the only resolution that would offer a majority government, with a total of 364 seats. However, despite Cameron stressing “common ground” between the parties, there are fundamental differences. Arguably any Lib Dem coalition would require a commitment to electoral reform, however the Conservative promise of an “all-party committee” is unlikely to satisfy Clegg or his party.
It is probable that Labour would prove far more accommodating to Lib Dem demands here and generally speaking the parties could be said to share more common ground. That notwithstanding, a Lib-Lab coalition would only account for 315 parliamentary seats, a full 11 short of a majority. In addition, the Lib Dems may well be reluctant to enter an alliance with a party perceivably rejected by the electorate with a seemingly unpopular Prime Minister.
Where does that leave us?
As the events unfold, it seems a cloud of uncertainty hangs over British parliamentary politics, with a few making strong predictions as to where we are heading.
Perhaps at this stage the most likely conclusion is as the BBC’s Nick Robinson suggested – a minority Tory government – with the Lib Dems agreeing to “allow Cameron to govern by not voting down the Queens speech or Budget”.
However, even with support from Northern Irish unionists, the Conservatives may still find governing extremely challenging in such a climate. The Tories may well struggle to pass legislation with no overall majority, which may lead some to think that parliament will be rendered ineffective. Such concerns are seemingly prevalent already, with stock market falling and the pound dropping to $1.44 this afternoon.
Such concerns have led to high-profile Conservative figures such as former Prime Minister John Major to suggest that a Con-Lib coalition is the only route to stable government. Major stated that he would go as far as offering Lib Dems cabinet positions, a price he was “willing to bear” for the “national interest”.
Talks have already begun, at least informally – but a quick resolution is unlikely. For now, and perhaps the days to come, the balance of power in British politics remains on a knife edge.
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