Torpedoes, vetoes and conspiracy theories: muddied waters along the Korean peninsula

Throughout the recent events on the Korean peninsula, perhaps one of the most accurate summaries of the situation is the most unorthodox one: the image of Kim Jong-il’s puppet representation bemoaning his isolation in 2004’s marionette hit, ‘Team America: World Police’. With the official investigation into the Cheonan disaster finding North Korea responsible for sinking the South Korean ship in which 46 sailors died, the international community lining up to voice their condemnation and South Korea on course to take the issue to the UN Security Council, North Korea is looking increasingly like the “roneriest” country in the world.

The big question is why North Korea should do such a crazy thing. With so little power that half its factories are non-operational, widespread daily electricity cuts and over a third of its people starving, the country can hardly afford belligerence. Some experts have suggested that the Cheonan attack and further threats may simply be a tantrum in response to the events of 2008, when South Korea stopped its regular aid packages in response to the North’s nuclear energy and weapons testing. Lieutenant Im-Chun-yong, a former senior officer in the Korean People’s Army, now defected to the South, has expressed the view that the sinking of Cheonan was meant to send the message that Kim and his people will not be bullied or ignored.

A quick scan of the 24-hour news websites leaves an aftertaste of foreboding: repeated updates on the urgent dialogue between China, Japan and South Korea; frenetic photographs of world leaders boarding planes. With North Korea’s troubling tendency to sneak nuclear and missile technology out to countries including Iran, Syria and Burma, its estimated military expenditure at as much as a quarter of its GDP, its 1.2m standing army and its 800 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Washington, the temptation to splash ‘Armageddon is HERE people’ across the headlines is tempting.

However, the likelihood is that the current situation will slowly but surely defuse.

Firstly, North Korea’s military capacity may not be as intimidating as the figures suggest – in recent missile testing, one missile crashed into the sea a few seconds after its launch. We can only hope that North – or South, if the conspiracy theorists are to be believed – Korea’s attempts at warmongering will disappear as quickly.

China, as a permanent member on the UN Security Council, looks set to have the casting vote on any action taken, and that vote is expected to be a cautious one. In the past few years China has worn a comfortable groove into the fence over the North Korea issue, reluctant to take UN measures against the country for fear that destabilisation of the fragile regime might trigger conflict or an influx of refugees across the border.

The sinking of Cheonan is unlikely to change things; at last weekend’s summit Chinese premier Wen Jiabao warned of the urgent need to defuse tensions along the border, but avoided even mentioning North Korea by name, let alone supporting UN sanctions against it. "The urgent task for the moment is to properly handle the serious impact caused by the Cheonan incident, gradually defuse tensions over it and avoid possible conflicts,” he said. The country has not even acknowledged North Korea to be responsible for the attack.

China isn’t the only one feeling uncertain. Factors such as the Cheonan report’s proximity to the country’s elections next week and the unexplained silencing of political websites doubting the reliability of the proof have led some South Koreans to voice misgivings about the crisis.

“I and many others suspect the South Korean government of deliberately accusing North Korea, even of making up the proof. We are well aware of the anti-North Korean sentiment of the government and do not trust the official report at all,” Seoul student Gyuhang Kim told the BBC.

“The evidence is not clear, yet our government takes the result of the investigation as a fact. But I wonder how the mark of the ink pen still exists [on the torpedo fragment] even after the explosion? And why has North Korea put a signature at the bottom of the torpedo?” asked intern Lee Jae-Youn in the same report. “The 60th anniversary of the Korean War is coming up and we feel uncomfortable with our president saying again and again that we will revenge them.”

Like other 21st century conspiracy theories, such as those surrounding 9/11 and the 1999 Moscow bombings, these speculations may prove difficult to dispel.

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