Fears amid increased al-Qaeda activity within Yemen

Given the newest terrorist attacks inflicted on both the US and the UK in the past week, the question of how much of a threat these new revelations pose remains to be fully realised - with a clear picture needed of who exactly is behind such potential atrocities. Yemen has reached global fame in the past week, as the newest hot spot for terrorist action. Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders are believed to be providing strategic and philosophical guidance from Pakistan to Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP - the group Washington believes was behind the recent attempt to ship bombs in packages to the U.S and the UK. Increased communication and collaboration between al-Qaeda militants within Yemen and the group's central leadership, have led to increased alarm on potential US and European terrorist plots, with plot detections first discovered several months ago - prompting officials to insist on increasingly more rigorous security measures across the UK.

AQAP was formed in January 2009 by a merger between two regional offshoots of the international Islamist militant network in Yemen and Saudi Arabia gaining a reputation for daring and unusual attacks. White House's counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan has branded the group "the most active operational franchise" of al-Qaeda outside Afghanistan and Pakistan. Its first operation outside Yemen in August 2009, involved the attempted assassination of the Saudi security chief. The assassination attempt on Saudi security chief, Prince Mohamed bin Nayef, was undertaken by the brother of Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri, now a prime suspect in the cargo plane plot.

Officials believe the release of a bin Laden audiotape last week may have been the signal for AQAP to set the package-bomb plot in motion, although others insist it is too early to make a direct connection. Seen as al-Qaeda's most active and ambitious affiliate, AQAP has at times sought the blessing of Mr. bin Laden on leadership decisions, a worrying thought given bin Laden’s active involvement in numerous events, most notably September 11th.

The two devices were posted in the Yemeni capital Sana’a with freight firms UPS and FedEx, with both American parcels addressed to synagogues in Chicago - with the UK believed to been designed to blow up on the plane itself. This prompted UK Home Secretary Theresa May to announce a review of all aspects of the UK’s air freight security, after UK authorities faced a wave of criticism for their initial failure to unearth the bomb on a plane at East Midlands airport. The crucial tip-off that led to their discovery came from a repentant al-Qaeda member, Jabr al-Faifi, who handed himself in to the Saudi authorities two weeks ago saying he wanted to return home, and a handover was arranged through Yemen's government.

In recent months, the U.S. focus on AQAP has been concentrated on capturing or killing American-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, who officials have described as a driving force behind AQAP's decision to start attacking U.S. targets, beginning with a failed plot to blow up a Detroit-bound passenger jet on Christmas Day. However former fighters and al-Qaeda experts in Yemen insist other leaders play a more vital role in the group's day-to-day terrorist operations, most notably Nasser al-Wuhayshi, a young protégé of Mr. bin Laden, and now the emir of AQAP, who al-Qaeda watchers and former jihadists in Yemen say has built his branch along the same lines as Mr. bin Laden, with a central committee of Islamic scholars and experienced military figures.

In response to the potential plot, numerous countries have tightened air security measures, with the UK and Netherlands banning incoming cargo flights from Yemen and Nigeria, and introducing explosive screening for certain outbound freight. However Germany’s decision to take it a step further and ban both cargo and passenger flights from Yemen, has lead to wave of anger within the Yemen – who accused Germany of "resorting to decisions which can only be likened to collective punishment". Despite this, Home Secretary Theresa May has defended the UK's security measures in her first major speech on counter-terrorism after the potential bomb plot unraveled this week, promising to do "absolutely nothing which will put at risk Britain's national security” and ensure core counter-terrorist policing capabilities would be maintained. This means stretching to a budget of over 4 billion for the next 4 years, a cost deemed acceptable given the high possibility of future terrorist attacks now under prediction and the global threat Yemen may prove to be to the western world.

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