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2011 is to be a big year in Irish politics. Fianna Fáil, the ruling centre party (currently in coalition with the Greens and some independents) which has been the governing party in Ireland for most of its history since independence, appears on course for the worst result in its electoral history. The next government, which is likely to be a Fine Gael-Labour coalition (a Grand coalition), will have to steer Ireland through the recession, and implement the IMF-EU Bail-Out agreement.
Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen has said he will not contest in the upcoming general election instead opting to step down as Fianna Fáil leader continue running the government, amid wide criticism of the his decision, the Green Party quickly pulled out of the governing coalition, placing Mr Cowen within a minority government. The Irish Republic's governing party has announced the new leader, only days after Prime Minister Brian Cowen resigned his party post amid a long-running political and economic crisis.
Fianna Fáil, long dominant in Ireland, announced the election of ex-Foreign Minister Micheal Martin. The party, which may face a general election next month, has slumped in the polls amid Ireland's growing financial crisis. Given the extensive economic issues, austerity measures have been introduced into parliament as a financial bill, with the Green Party consenting to offer their support for the relevant bill. The beleaguered prime minister had wanted to hold an election in March, but opposition politicians say they expect a vote on 25 February.
Once known as the Celtic Tiger for its strong economic growth, the Irish economy had ridden high on a property bubble, prompting the Irish Republic to accept the 85bn euro ($113bn; £72bn) bail-out from the EU and IMF in November last year, after property prices crashed, the economy tanked, and several banks were left needing huge state handouts. Fianna Fail, which negotiated the bailout, has been forced to make a virtue out of making no spending pledges, a view not shared by the voters.
Given the current situation, analysts expect Fianna Fáil to suffer a crushing defeat at the forthcoming election, as voters blame them for mismanaging Ireland’s over-heated and under-regulated economy, proven with recent opinion polls. Enda Kenny's Fine Gael party is currently leading the polls, with Fianna Fáils Michael Martin coming in third. Given the figures it is almost sure Fine Gaels Kenny will become Taoiseach, although whether Fine Gael with continue with a minority, or being a coalition with Labour, remains to be seen.
Current polls have emphasised that voters desire to see some form of renegotiation of the EU loan but know that that no Irish government can do so unilaterally, believing any change will have to be right across the European Union. Ireland, new government or not, is not going to get a sweet heart deal, meaning Ireland will still have to take another €15 billion out of the economy, either in the form of spending cuts or tax rises by 2014, in line with the National Recovery Plan, a fact prominent within all election campaigns. Fine Gael, and Fianna Fáil in particular have set the bar for economic recovery plans, with Mr Kenny said it would be immoral for the country to continuing writing blank cheques for the banks, and also reaffirmed the commitment to reducing the Budget deficit to 3% by 2014. However at the launch of his party's proposals for political reform, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin said he believed that the Order of Business in the Dáil was the most ridiculous show in town stating his party was committed to radically changing the way politics operated, resulting in the emergence of a clear distinction Fianna Fáil and the other parties over political reform.
With the election just under 10 days away, nothing is concrete, although after the final debate held last night, Fine Gaels way to power seems paved, with The Irish Independent's front headline voicing the certainty of many, “Kenny was 'unscathed' “.
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