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All exit polls suggest that Enda Kenny, Ireland’s longest serving member of parliament and leader of the centre-right Fine Gael looks set to take over as Ireland’s Taoiseach. However, perhaps unsurprisingly given the Irish Republic’s proportional electoral system it appears highly unlikely that his party will able to secure an overall majority.
Tumultuous Backdrop
The result comes following months of economic and political turmoil in the Irish republic. Recent months have seen Ireland face crippling debt – ensuring the nation had to accept a bail-out package from the EU and IMF. As the situation worsened, the ruling party Fianna Fail lost the support of coalition’s junior partners, the Greens as well as its independent TD supporters. Furthermore, the current Taoiseach Brian Cowen resigned as leader of his party before the general election took place. This left Michael Martin with the unenviable task of leading the seemingly moribund political outfit into yesterday’s contest.
Historic Result
The election marks a paradigm shift in the balance of political power in Ireland. For generations Fianna Fail have been the established party of power – in office for sixty of the last eighty years, including the last fourteen. After decades of electoral hegemony, Fianna Fail look set not just to lose office, but finish a crushing third with 15.5% of the vote, their worst ever result.
Ireland’s Labour party look set to come second in the poll; becoming the likely junior coalition partner of Fine Gael. With over 20% of the vote, this is Labour’s most successful election to date. Their fortunes are in stark contrast to that of the Irish Green party, Fianna Fail’s junior partners in government, after their vote fell below 3%.
The election also saw success for Sinn Fein, with the election of Gerry Adams to the Dáil Éireann after giving up his seat in the UK parliament. Sinn Fein finished fourth and look set to double their parliamentary representation.
Challenging Future
Despite the historic nature of their success, Fine Gael will have little time to savour their victory and will now have to govern in circumstances far from ideal. They have inherited enormous levels of debt and unemployment figures are now said to be around 14%. Concerns have even been raised in the wake of reports of extremely high levels of emigration.
Enda Kenny has already pledged to re-negotiate the terms of the EU-IMF bail-out, signifying a desire to show a degree of leadership perhaps lacked by his predecessor. However there is little doubt that new government face a hugely daunting task in trying to rescue Ireland’s economy after such turmoil.
In addition to the result itself, the high level of turnout of around 70% marks this election as an emphatic rejection of both Fianna Fail and the political status quo in Ireland. Much now will depend on the ability of the new coalition to steer Ireland towards economic recovery.
If the new government proves successful, whether by design of chance, then this election may well prove extremely historic - ensuring a new party-political makeup in Ireland for decades to come. However, should governing prove far more difficult than opposition (as is so often the case) - the new government may find the electorate fickle and Ireland's new political reality could well prove a false dawn.
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