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The curious case of the Iraq inquiry

Gordon Brown
Gordon Brown
Sunday, 28th June 2009
The long-speculated inquiry into the Iraq war is almost upon us. Due to start on, or just after, the end of July, it coincides with the end of all combat operations in Iraq. The inquiry will investigate the build-up to the invasion and the consequent military operations during the invasion and subsequent occupation. The inquiry, long hoped for by anti-war pressure groups, is about to start, and not on the government’s terms.

Originally set up along the lines of the Franks inquiry into the Falklands war, the hearings were to be held in secret. The committee would only publish its findings at the end of the inquiry, which would be after the next general election. Furthermore, unlike the Franks inquiry, the committee would only have five members, chaired by Sir John Chilcort, none of which have any military experience. The inquiry will not be able to attribute civil or criminal breaches of the law to any individual, and any person brought before the committee to testify would not have to swear an oath, but merely be called upon to tell the truth, without the threat of punitive measures if they did not. This all sounded quite good for Mr Brown and Mr Blair and indeed it was - an inquiry held in private, unable to attribute blame, with committee members who are lacking the necessary experience.

Everything looked pretty rosy for the pair, and it was, until the leadership crisis happened. Brown lost a lot of his power within the party, within the House of Commons, and he desperately needs to regain the confidence of the electorate before the next election. He no longer has the political clout to keep the inquiry set out as he planned.

In the past couple of weeks Brown has been forced to concede not just minor, but major points to opponents. He has been unable to withstand the pressure from the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and from Chilcort, who have all demanded changes be made to the inquiry's remit and scope. He has been effectively blind-sided by David Milliband, his main rival for leadership within the party, who has insisted on a much more open inquiry. Additionally, Labour backbenchers have threatened to rebel and vote in favour of the Tory proposals for alterations to the inquiry. Never mind what this says about Brown’s grip on power at the moment, it looks like there is a possibility of a proper inquiry.

The reversals have been extraordinary. The committee can now hold all its hearings in public as long as they do not significantly compromise national security. The committee can, if it wishes, publish an interim report before the next election, military experts and post-war reconstruction experts have been appointed to the committee, and those brought before the committee will have to swear an oath when they testify. Mr Blair has been named as one of those who, almost certainly, will be brought before the committee. Finally, and crucially, the inquiry will be able to attribute breaches of civil and criminal law to individuals which could open the door for prosecutions for those involved.

Suddenly it doesn’t seem so sunny for Mr Blair and Mr Brown. The inquiry now has the capacity to conduct a thorough investigation into the war; it is more than capable, if it has sufficient evidence, to provide a basis for legal proceedings against the key players involved in the war, and Brown no longer has the clout to prevent those at the very top from escaping the grasp of the inquiry. With the creation of a proper inquiry into the infamous invasion of Iraq things have definitely taken a turn for the worse for both Mr Blair and Mr Brown.

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