European elections preview

Thirty years on from its creation, the election of the European parliament is set to become the largest trans-national elections in history.

Within in the next week 27 countries will go to the poles to elect 785 elective representatives. Of these, 6 will represent Yorkshire and Humber, currently labour and the Conservatives both hold 2 seats each, Diana Wallis has the single Lib Dem seat, and the 6th seat was snatched by UKIP with the BNP closing in.

The proportional representation system 12 parties are standing in Yorkshire all containing a melange of political philosophies. Ranging from the far left to the far right, the pro-European to those fervently opposed to the EU. With the latter being particularly prominent - 7 of the 12 parties standing in Yorkshire classify themselves as Euro-sceptic.

However Yorkshire is one of the biggest UK recipients of European union funding, the region has been given over 1.5 billion pounds through the EU’s structural fund since 2000, this money has been used to aid the recovery from the effects of the decline of the coal and steel industry.

Nevertheless these sorts of measures are likely to have little impact on the decision of voters in Yorkshire as votes tend to be decided on the basis of UK issues as opposed to EU policies. This coupled with the current economic climate and the political disillusionment created by the recent MP scandal suggests that voters are likely to look beyond the traditional parties.

Indeed, 5 polls this week have predicted that labour will receive less than 22% of votes in the elections.

In 2004 UKIP were the main contender for these disparate votes, however the current waning of UKIP means they are not in a strong position to benefit from them - Two UKIP insiders claim that UKIP’s credibility "is at rock bottom” and that this June is likely to be Farage's (UKIP’s party leader and MEP) - and UKIP's - swansong".

With similar philosophies and overlapping membership voters could potentially swing towards the BNP. Historically the far right thrive out of economic recession, political crisis and a failure of the existing system. In this case as the BNP see it, it is the failure of main political parties to address serious concerns held by many working people on jobs and housing.

The British economy has seen worse recessions and political crisis than now, but this time the BNP are able to focus on a new issue that appears to strike the hearts of many British people, namely that of the surrendering of British sovereignty to “foreigners.” The archbishop of York has recently called for people to not let anger over the MP’s scandal to drive them to vote for the BNP.

The previous elections in Yorkshire in 2004 saw a turnout of 42.3%. If this remains as last time, the BNP would need to secure an extra 100,000 votes to be assured a seat. However as little as 12% of the vote could potentially secure the BNP their first major political break through.

The BNP also finished in 5th place in Yorkshires neighbouring constituency - the North west. With 9 seats contested here, a double win could potentially be a huge breakthrough for the BNP. Nick Griffin - the leader of the BNP stands in the North West and Andrew Brons, former leader of the National Front, stands in Yorkshire and Humber.

Currently the BNP have not succeeded in achieving political representation beyond the level of local councils and one London assembly member. As such they remain largely separated from traditional British politics, electoral success in the North stands to bring a degree of legitimacy potentially acting as a catalyst for further support.

Also a huge financial boost is given to the party for each MEP elected, this money would allow the BNP to massively boost their campaign, which could trigger further support.

• The Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats currently have one local MEP Diana Wallis. She is the vice president of the European parliament - the first Liberal Democrat and the first British female of any political persuasion to be elected to such a post in twenty years. The lib dems are the most pro-european of all the parties, with Nick Clegg having been a former MEP. The liberal democrats passionate support for the European Union and the single currency has not been particularly effective at enticing British voters. Clegg has enthusiastically expounded the benefits of membership of the EU – more jobs, less crime, more stringent environmental regulation. However nationally in 2004, the Lib dems finished fourth behind UKIP. Thus it seems that Britain is not ready to lurch head first into Europe.

• UKIP

UKIP Fights its elections on a single issue – namely that it wants to leave the EU and to join the European Free Trade Area (EFTA). Despite being in almost total disarray, UKIP will benefit firstly from the general sense of disillusionment with the main three parties, and also from the failure of the Tories to have a credible policy on Europe.

UKIP are predicted to do well in this election; poll giving UKIP 16% confirming a surge in support for the fringe party reflected in other recent opinion polls. David Cameron attacked UKIP, saying that a third of its 12 MEPs had "disappeared, some to prison [for expenses abuses], some to the furthest reaches of rightwing lunacy"

• Structure of EU

Law making in the European union is a fairly tedious process, the European commission consisting of senior politicians appointed by each of the member states, proposes laws, which are then accepted or rejected by the European parliament. However before it can be law it needs to be accepted by various other appointed bodies. Currently the soft right dominates the parliament, thus if there were to be a resurgence in socialist MEP’s across Europe, the type of laws being passed would have a more left wing feel.

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