Blair to become Mr. Europe?

Tony Blair as prime minister

Yet this approach is narrow minded: the support for Bush, although very wrong in retrospect, is very understandable in context, at a time where it was unsure which type of terrorism was upon the world and how to best approach it. Moreover, there are some credible reasons for the referendum to have never happened. Although a strong believer in democracy, I personally feel that a referendum is never about the actual issue but often becomes a popularity contest. How many of the voters would have read the treaty and known what it is really about? Politicians often pick out particular phrases rather than take up the entire topic in context and voters are equally as often informed solely through the frequently distorted view of the media. It's fair enough: we get our news through the newspapers and other media outlets- but few of us read enough sources to draw a proportional picture. Thus, to push for the Lisbon treaty to be voted in through Parliament was a wise decision, albeit wrong in that the public was lied to in the process.

Other objectors - such as Germany's Angela Merkel - say the EU President should be from a smaller EU country. This would keep more prominent countries like Britain, a strong voice in the EU, from shifting the power balance in their own favour. This is a very reasonable point. The UK is known to have been a colonial superpower (some would even argue it still is) and to have a relatively dominant country provide the EU President might seem biased. The legitimacy of this argument is further strengthened by the fact that Merkel herself, as Chancellor of Germany, would not suggest a candidate from her own country for the mere reason that the EU is a union, not a hierarchy.

Besides, there are many other candidates who might be well suited for the post. There have been rumours that the Netherland’s Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende may have a good shot at getting the Presidency. Belgium’s Prime Minister, Herman Van Rompuy is also said to be interested in the job, as well as Jean-Claude Juncker, Prime Minister of Luxembourg. All very apt and decidedly more popular than Blair, as well as hailing from smaller countries, these candidates make Blair’s run seem like a half lost battle already.

Yet Blair’s ability and determination should also not be underestimated. The Obama administration is said to have expressed a hope for a strong personality to emerge as President, on par with leaders like Obama and Russia's President Medvedev. Blair’s charisma would not be misplaced here. This would give the EU the strong leadership quality it is often said to lack in foreign affairs. Thus, although Blair seems to be unfavourable in many ways, he should not be considered out of the picture just yet.

At the last session of the European Council at the end of October a political understanding was apparently reached between the two big political families of the EU: while the Conservatives/ Christian Democrats would have the possibility of nominating someone for the post of President of the European Council, the Social Democrats would propose someone for the post of High Representative of the EU on Foreign and Security Policy. Obviously, the Conservatives will not nominate Mr. Blair for the job at the helm of the European Council. This political deal obviously diminishes Blair's chances very seriously – and nasty voices in Brussels keep whispering that the deal was struck primarily in order to prevent Mr. Blair from becoming Mr. Europe.

Why are such a considerable number of continental EU Member States against Mr. Blair? One plausible answer is that the first President of the European Council should not come from a country which does not take part in the EU's two last important steps of integration, the Euro and Schengen. Political responsibility for Britain remaining outside of the EU's main efforts lay not least with Mr. Blair himself. It seems to me then that not only are Blair’s chances diminishing, but his charisma and experience may not be enough to outweigh the unfavourable circumstances.

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